NFL draft

This is a change of pace post.  I like the NFL, so I am going to write about it.  Not exactly on topic, as the blog has been so far, though.  Sorry, but I like it.

We are getting close to the NFL draft, which has always fascinated me.  Well, not always.  Like now, I am not quite so interested as in years past.  Most likely, the labor problems are weighing in on that.

Everyone loves mock drafts, and I have tried this myself, but I think it is a waste of time.  Nobody can predict the future with precision.  Once you get past the first few picks, there's way too many possible variations.  Prediction becomes impossible.

I guess I wrote about this because I wanted to talk about it a bit.  I have a bit of a theory about the draft.  People in the business do, I suppose everyone does.  To me, it is always about value.  My theory is this:  trying to ascertain the future of any professional football player is too risky to spend as much money on them as they do.  If I had any say about it, I would trade down for extra picks.  I would never let myself be in a position to have to pay a player a lot of money just because he got drafted high.

It is a matter of odds.  What are the odds for the player to succeed?  Take Arian Foster of the Houston Texans.  He wasn't even drafted, but he was the leading rusher last year.  The odds are against anything like that happening, but nothing is a sure bet.  Top picks don't always pan out.  But one thing you can count on is that they'll demand a lot of money if they get picked early.  I'd take my chances on good prospects down the list.  That's my draft theory.