Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Random observations

NBER, the authority on calling recessions and recoveries, has declared that the recession is over.  But....where's the jobs?  The unemployment rate is still near 10%, and that is the overoptimistic official government statistic.  It is your call to believe it or not.

There are more calls out there for a constitutional convention.  Washington is always scared of this.  But one of these days, DC won't be able to stop it.  And when it starts, all bets are off.  Anything can happen.  Congress, nor the courts have any control over a convention.  That's the beauty of it and also the scary part of it.  As long as we have congresscritters who disregard the will of the people, a convention is a distinct possibility.

For those of us who think the media is biased, consider Gallup polls.  These have been all over the place lately. They had Republicans way ahead of the Democrats in generic preference polls with respect to control of Congress.  But the polls aren't consistent.  They'll poll likely voters, then registered voters.  You don't suppose they could be trying to make news with the polls do you?  This latest poll has the Democrats and Republicans neck and neck.   But it is registered voters that they polled this time, who tend to lean Democrat.  More than likely, this latest poll makes it look like the Democrats are gaining ground.  Maybe they are, maybe they aren't. But at least it should be apples and apples comparison, not an apples and oranges comparison.  Tricky, tricky.