Wuhan Virus Story, 4.11.20

The story today is that the New York Times Online site is going to start requiring a subscription for the Wuhan virus updates. Body counts are still free, of course.

Well, actually I don't know if there's a paywall. But I won't subscribe to that left-wing hysteria mongering fish wrap.

Not that I begrudge anybody making a living. But this put a lot of people out of a job. It has caused an economic dislocation that may be felt for some time. Yes, and I am suspicious that if Hillary Clinton were in the White House, there wouldn't be a daily body count.

So I cannot analyze the data unless I can get some. I charge nothing so I am not going to pay anything. Maybe my analysis doesn't amount to a hill of beans anyway. I could have learned something for my own benefit. Perhaps a few people might have seen something of use. Not anymore, though.

This is all for the political show so that they can accuse Trump of failing in his job. On the one hand, they accuse him of being a King. On the other, they accuse him of being ineffectual. Since he isn't a King, there is plenty of blame to go around. The Times may want to look in the mirror.

There are other news sources. I'll go back to Free Republic. Free is good.

Wuhan Virus Story, 4.10.20

This series of posts are derived largely from data obtained from the New York Times Online site.

Perusal of the data indicates that it is a local, as opposed to national problem. After all, your health is local as it gets. Start in your immediate area, and then work your way outward. That is opposed to getting fixated on the national and international scene. You have the most control over your own situation, after all. That's my approach in a nutshell.

The Times leads with a national case count as well as a "body count". I use "body count" like a war, because that is how they report a war. In the Vietnam Era, they would count the enemy killed as well, but that doesn't apply here. ( a little snark there )

Yes, the political stuff isn't helpful in my own situation. I stopped following the news for that reason. Now that the growth of cases seem to be leveling off, it is now time to consider the other side of this situation. Like, how do we get out of this mess?

But we are still in it. So, while we are, let's look a little closer at the Big Picture.

New York seems to be the hardest hit. It makes sense because that is where the people are. Places like Llano County Texas, which is where I am, seem to be in a lot better shape. There aren't that many people here, but there aren't that many cases per 100k population, either. Compared to New York, Llano is an oasis in a vast desert. The good news is that there are a lot of these all over the country. In fact, the "Dead Zones" are the cities. But that is where all the cases are. Exactly.

Harris County Texas trailed DFW for most of this outbreak, but now Harris ( Houston ) is pulling far ahead. What's going on here? Both cities are roughly the same size ( metro wise that is ). Still, Houston is pulling ahead. It isn't just the people. Something else is at work. Perhaps a clue is that a lot of people may be coming in from New Orleans. New Orleans is hard-hit. After Katrina, a lot of people came to Houston from New Orleans. Maybe that is what's happening now. People there in Houston need to get on the ball and look at this possibility.

Wuhan is a traveling bug if it is anything. It doesn't have legs, so the people are bringing it. It makes sense to restrict travel, but you have to be pro-active. If you wait until the bug is already here, then it might be too late.

That means if your local area is clear, you aren't completely safe. Those hot zones need to get it under control. If that works out, then the rest should take care of itself.

Tracking the Wuhan Virus, 4.9.20

The immediate area here in my neighborhood has had zero change from yesterday.

I heard a funny story from a relative from San Antonio. It seems that people are really going all out on this protective clothing tactic against the virus. There was a guy who wore a dinosaur outfit, and more than that. He also had a breathing mask underneath. It must have been a sight to see. When I heard that, I doubled up in laughter. I'm trying to visualize Barney walking down the aisle.

I thought I was going a bit overboard when I considered making my own homemade mask. If I were to wear what I had in mind, I might well provoke some laughter. Hey, no laughing matter, ya'll. ( snicker snicker )

I reiterate the stats, which indicate that densely populated areas are at the greatest risk. Those with pre-existing conditions are the ones with the greatest risk. For this, the entire country must be shut down. I'm not trying to be a smart aleck or anything, but the bill for this is going to come due at some point. You cannot print funny money and get away with it forever.

This is really about people living in the cities who do things they shouldn't be doing anyway.

Tracking the Wuhan Virus, 4.8.20

The immediate area here in my neighborhood has had zero change. However, in counties adjacent, there are more cases. There is nothing dramatic in those numbers, but they are growing a bit.

Let's dig a little deeper than yesterday. New York is hardest hit right now. What is different about New York? For one thing, it is the population density. In Manhattan, the density is over 60k people per square mile. That is so far off the charts BIGGER than Llano county Texas that there is simply no comparison. One should expect not only MORE cases overall, but infection rates to be higher. There are too many ways for the virus to spread when there are so many people.

I could cite the statistics, but they are easy to obtain from the New York Times. Everybody should know this already.

A little comparison between my old neighborhood in Houston and New York may offer some perspective. Let's estimate that 2k people lived in that block I lived on. Let's also say that it covered about 40 acres. Since it takes 640 acres to make a square mile, multiply 2k times 16. If you do, then you get about half as many people per square mile as Manhattan. That's for ALL of Manhattan. That also means that the people are more tightly packed than merely twice what my old neighborhood. They must have a lot of very tall buildings full of residents there. Consequently, all those people have to share common areas. The opportunity for infection has to skyrocket. ( By the way, on 2nd thought, my numbers are very, very conservative about Houston. You might have a much lower population density there than what I am estimating. In other words, Houston doesn't even compare with New York.)

Comparing the old neighborhood with the current one, that 2k block in Houston would represent 10% of the population of this entire county, which covers nearly 1000 square miles. It should be easy to see that there is already a lot of social distancing built into the area. It isn't impossible to get the virus here, but it is unlikely unless you become careless. I wouldn't counsel carelessness in any event.

I do not wish to be critical of people's efforts in this neck of woods, but it should go without saying that this isn't New York.

The media is treating this like a national problem. I would suggest that this is a LOCAL problem. In fact, one's personal health is about as local as it can get.

Tracking the Wuhan Virus, 4.7.20

The focus today remains on my immediate area. Time to change things, though. The same old thing can become stale, don't you know.

In Llano county, the number of cases remained steady @ 3. It doesn't look to be spreading very fast into the hinterlands. Why is that? A perusal of the infection rates based upon population yields a higher case load in the cities, but also a higher rate of infection overall. The explanation for this could be that they have had the virus in their communities for a longer time. However, I'd like to posit the notion that there is some reason why the cities are getting hit a bit harder. In short, there are a lot more opportunities for it to spread in the cities. It starts there because the cities have airport hubs, and in some cases, ships which could carry passengers with the virus. New York City is an important shipping destination as is Houston. Houston seems to be getting the worst of it now. Dallas-Fort Worth has an important airport hub. It grew faster than the Houston area at first, but now Houston is surpassing DFW.

The virus travels with the people, and spreads in the places where there are the most people. Therefore, the cities get hit the hardest.

But none of this is really new. A question then is why are the cases continuing to grow? There may be a lock-down, but couldn't be all that stringent if people are still getting the virus.

Spare me the freedom talk. Freedom is a higher-level function. It requires the use of one's own brains as opposed to letting someone else do your thinking for you. I'm not suggesting a dictatorship, but for people to realize that freedom means nothing when people start to get afraid. Look at the empty store shelves to see that. The loss of higher level functions happens in survival situations, or even in situations that aren't survival situations, but are perceived as such. There was never any reason for empty store shelves. Please smarten up people. The infection rate is way too low for people to be acting like this. But then again, if they didn't take precautions at all, things could get a lot worse.

Freedom means that you act before the government decides it has to act. When the government gets involved then it is too late to talk about freedom. People need to govern themselves or be governed. If you want to be free, then act in advance of these problems. If they catch up to the population at large, then forget-about-it. The herd mentality takes over. Try reasoning with a mob, eh? The mob only understands force. If you want to be a herd animal, then act like a dumb beast.

Rather than wait for the government to tell us what to do, now is the time to do what it takes to knock this thing out for good. Now. If it means wearing a mask and gloves, then I am prepared to start doing that. But I would prefer to pre-empt the government. Anyway, there are people around here who are already doing that. I haven't. It pains me to consider this move, but it would be better to start doing something right now. There's still time for people to act rationally, even if it isn't all the time.

That survival book I mentioned here or on the other blog mentioned a "party attitude". So let the party begin. Time to kick butt.

Texas County map track of spread of the Wuhan Virus, 4.6.20

The focus today remains on my immediate area. However, I will spend a ittle time on geography this time.

In my own county, the number of cases remained steady. So, I decided to look a bit deeper into the the population density. I found something interesting. The infection rate resembles Williamson County. There is one case per 7k people. Does that hold up in general? Not exactly, but it is still in the ballpark, so to speak. Williamson County has about half a million people, versus 20k for Llano. There are 3 cases in Llano. Williamson had 71 at last count.

With those numbers, we may be able to predict a few things. Since some of the counties in Texas have fewer than 7000 people in them, we can expect that there won't be any cases there. Or if there are, it won't be many. Indeed, a survey that I have done over the last few weeks bears this out. Population density drives the total number of infections in a county.

This is probably not news though. So I'll move on to geography. In the Wikipedia entry in Llano county, there was an Indian fight less than 20 miles from my place. A group of 21 Apaches made a stand on a hill close to modern-day Highway 71. Apaches had a rather fearsome reputation. This took place shortly after the Civil War. During the War, the Army in this region had more trouble with the Indians than with the Unionists.

Not too far from here, in Williamson county mentioned above, there was a huge flood that killed a bunch of people. It is hard to see how such a thing could occur unless those people were near a creek or river. The closest major river is the Colorado, but that doesn't go through Williamson county. Actually, there are a few high spots. Any high spot will have the rainfall going downhill towards the low spots. Thus, any spot that doesn't seem all that low could still see a lot of runoff. Maybe that is how it happened.

Just my opinion here. I think we are all too soft and scare too easily. From the looks of it, this thing won't last too much longer. Looking at it from the perspective of history, there have been a lot worse things. Indians could wipe out entire families. So could a flood. The oldtimers had it a lot worse than we do.

One other thing. If it does end in the next month, by election day, people may have forgotten a lot of this. I recall in 2008, Hurricane Ike played hell with Houston traffic. A lot of the street lights were out. It caused major traffic delays all over town. But in a few weeks, it was like it never even happened. At least, in that respect.

In 2005, people were in such a panic about Hurricane Rita that they caused 70-mile long traffic jams. It made the national news, you may recall. Did anybody learn anything from that? Probably not much. Back then, they cleared the shelves at the supermarkets. Does that sound familiar?

Maybe someday, we'll learn. But I wouldn't bet the ranch on it.