Tracking the Wuhan Virus, 4.8.20

The immediate area here in my neighborhood has had zero change. However, in counties adjacent, there are more cases. There is nothing dramatic in those numbers, but they are growing a bit.

Let's dig a little deeper than yesterday. New York is hardest hit right now. What is different about New York? For one thing, it is the population density. In Manhattan, the density is over 60k people per square mile. That is so far off the charts BIGGER than Llano county Texas that there is simply no comparison. One should expect not only MORE cases overall, but infection rates to be higher. There are too many ways for the virus to spread when there are so many people.

I could cite the statistics, but they are easy to obtain from the New York Times. Everybody should know this already.

A little comparison between my old neighborhood in Houston and New York may offer some perspective. Let's estimate that 2k people lived in that block I lived on. Let's also say that it covered about 40 acres. Since it takes 640 acres to make a square mile, multiply 2k times 16. If you do, then you get about half as many people per square mile as Manhattan. That's for ALL of Manhattan. That also means that the people are more tightly packed than merely twice what my old neighborhood. They must have a lot of very tall buildings full of residents there. Consequently, all those people have to share common areas. The opportunity for infection has to skyrocket. ( By the way, on 2nd thought, my numbers are very, very conservative about Houston. You might have a much lower population density there than what I am estimating. In other words, Houston doesn't even compare with New York.)

Comparing the old neighborhood with the current one, that 2k block in Houston would represent 10% of the population of this entire county, which covers nearly 1000 square miles. It should be easy to see that there is already a lot of social distancing built into the area. It isn't impossible to get the virus here, but it is unlikely unless you become careless. I wouldn't counsel carelessness in any event.

I do not wish to be critical of people's efforts in this neck of woods, but it should go without saying that this isn't New York.

The media is treating this like a national problem. I would suggest that this is a LOCAL problem. In fact, one's personal health is about as local as it can get.