Lunar lander discussion

Ship 31 nose cone stacked?!





9/2/23: Update to post of 7/11/23:

The markings of this indicate that it's an HLS ( lunar lander) mockup. But what if you made a lander of this size, as opposed to the entire starship? The idea would be to reduce the weight of the lander. It would need less fuel to land, and to return to space. It's still pretty large, though.

Ship 31 as an HLS mockup

Original post of 7/11/23:

How many launches will it take to get the Starship lunar lander to complete its mission? Elon Musk says four. Jeff Bezos says sixteen. Perhaps they are both exaggerating for effect. It does make a certain amount of sense to say that it would take only four.

Musk says that the lunar lander will weigh a lot less. It takes upwards of 50 pounds of fuel for each pound that gets to orbit. That's just fuel. Running the numbers a bit, it take 6000 tons in order to get 150 tons into orbit. That about 4800 for the booster, and 1200 for the Starship. So maybe you can do it for forty pounds instead of fifty.

The Artemis mission doesn't require a full 150 tons to the lunar surface. That helps. The Starship doesn't need fins and a heat tiles because it won't re-enter the Earth's atmosphere. That helps.

The question is how much does this thing weigh? Also, would it be desirable to cut the weight even further? What if it were detachable? What if the cargo and crew section were to be made of a different material, like aluminum? Or carbon fiber? Musk doesn't plan on making hundreds of these. It's a one-off. He may need to make only a few of them.

The Apollo program had only a 15 ton lunar lander. Most of that was hardware and fuel. You can make that a baseline. The Starship may have an empty weight of 110 tons or more. Would it make sense for Musk to shave the weight down a bit more, or a lot more?

We'll see. But it probably won't take fourteen launches. As it stands now, it will probably take more than five.

There are other ways of doing the mission. For instance, let's say that the Starship cargo and crew area were to be used for stowing a separate lander. Perhaps you could use the Dragon variant with a fuel tank attached. The Starship could be refueled enough to get to the Gateway, and back to Earth orbit. It could be reused for future missions. It's role would be a tug. The lunar lander will take the crew and cargo the rest of the way and back to the Gateway. The Orion will get the crew back to Earth.

The Starship can put 150 tons into low orbit. The Artemis mission doesn't require 150 tons on the moon. It would appear to have some extra capacity not being used. The delta-v required would have to be less than what it would take to get to Earth orbit. Therefore, if enough delta v were available, 150 tons could be sent to the Gateway. This would include the lander and all its fuel. If the lander massed out at less than 150 tons, the Starship can get it to Earth orbit. Would 150 tons be enough to get a lander on the surface and back to the Gateway? A hunch would say that this may be feasible.

We'll see how it is done. Musk has a contract, and he wouldn't want to lose money on the deal. If it is worth it, and he can keep it within budget, who knows? It may be a lot simpler to do it the way he seems to be doing it. It doesn't seem very elegant to me though.

Another thought here: it could be in the contract, and therefore, it is already set. There's no chance to make design changes, in other words. Too bad, if that is the case.

"Somebody help that man"

Biden calls Pete Buttigieg “Secretary BootyJuice”..

We are truly living in a simulation .. 🤣🤣 pic.twitter.com/WAiYCuKeXD

— Chuck Callesto (@ChuckCallesto) September 1, 2023

Poll numbers going down? Why????

How Mining On Mars Could Save The Earth

The video asserts that mining of Mars could be the best option, as opposed to mining asteroids and the moon.

I wouldn't have thought that. It is clear that water and oxygen can be obtained from Mars, but what about the other stuff? The answer is that you'd look in craters. The good stuff would likely be at the bottom of craters.

So mining a metal rich asteroid isn't the ticket? That's surprises me.

Harmeet Dhillon

She ran against Ronna McRomney for the chairperson of the RNC. lol, but she's sounds pretty good here. Figures that they put Ronna McRomney back in there.

“Aloha”

When arguing in federal court in HI in 2020, I had to get permission from the governor to enter his precious state to argue that his silly COVID lockdowns violated the Constitution. I lost. This same state, in real life, has shown how little respect for life its leaders…

— Harmeet K. Dhillon (@pnjaban) August 22, 2023

Jon Voight

 

The one thing that they could possibly do, the GOP won't do. Stop feeding the beast. But they'll continue funding the beast with another omnibus spending bill. The GOP is truly useless.

Jon Voight:

"This is now a war. A war against all of us. The Biden administration is a corrupt mob. This is a horror." pic.twitter.com/JeLk66CYad

— Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) August 29, 2023

To avoid Starship exploding, SpaceX did this...

There may be two possibilities for an explosion. At liftoff and at staging. Let's take the each one in turn. At liftoff, if the water doesn't come out fast enough, it may flash to steam at a time that may be inconvenient. That would be when it is still coming out. If the rocket exhaust hits the metal first, the water underneath could flash to steam and build up suddenly in an explosion. If the water coming up is sufficient, then the water won't flash to steam inside the metal table, and there won't be a buildup of pressure, and no explosion. That can't be tested until it is launched at full power. The tests thus far have been 50% power. What happens at 100% power? We'll know when it happens.

Something similar could happen with the hot staging. If there's too much pressure buildup too soon, it could cause an explosion. The staging ring should relieve enough pressure so that an explosion won't occur, but that hasn't been tested yet. We'll know the answer once the rocket is launched the next time.

The most potential for a disaster would be at launch. It has a full load of fuel onboard. If that explodes, it won't be pretty.

The utter ignorance of modern educators on proud display the last two days in Colorado

The utter ignorance of modern educators on proud display the last two days in Colorado

It's all about the Gadsden Flag, which is claimed to be "racist".  Just about anything these days is claimed to be racist.  Problem is that the flag is not racist.  

The "educators" are morons.

Is the Constitution "Christian" ?

More good stuff. He makes the case that it is indeed.

This may seem provocative these days, but it is well-reasoned and the evidence is very clear.

Blessings of Jacob, Pt. 2 (GCBI 102.12)

This is good stuff. I came across awhile back, and forgot about it. It is good that I was reminded of it.

Why Japan HATES electric cars

Japan is right to hate electric cars. Electric cars will destroy their economic base. Perhaps that's why the political left wants them so badly. Let's just wreck everything by chasing this "green" nonsense.

The left will win the ideological war when the capitalists all commit suicide. Nice trick if you can manage it. Looks like they are succeeding.

No King, but the Constitution

The problem isn't the system. If the "system" was functional, none of this would have happened. Every officer who takes office must swear an oath to support and defend the Constitution. That's where it breaks down. It's the people who have no integrity who are the cause of these problems. They take an oath that they despise and dishonor at every turn.

This is why they want the guns. This is why they want to imprison anybody who may speak up and challenge their perfidy and dishonor. Trump did not attempt to overthrow the Constitution and they darned well know it. Trump was a challenge to THEM personally. These people do not support the Constitution, they are usurping it. They do not free us, but instead, they enslave us.

It is why they are destroying the culture that created it and sustained freedom. If those who pretend to care about it actually did what their oath requires, none of this would be happening.

Pence is a sell out. The modern GOP is loaded with sell outs. That's the problem. The Democrats don't give a rat's rear end about the law or the Constitution. They are only interested in it up to the point that they can use it so as to be able to destroy it. When they have safely destroyed it, then they will make their declaration that any opposition to them will be illegal.

That's why Trump is going to put in jail if they are allowed to get away with it. They have no such authority in the law, but the law is not what they are about. The pretend, just like they pretend to be the sex that they are not. Everything they say is a lie. Nothing of what they claim it is about is what is really about. It is about revolution and destroying the existing order, and replacing it with their perverted vision.

All the while they are doing this destruction, they are pretending to be supporting the Constitution. I'm talking about Pence and the rest of the sell outs. They are the useful idiots for the communists. They defend nothing and sell us all down the river. The new slavery's chains are being forged, but they do nothing to stop it. Indeed, they help it along.

A King isn't needed. An aroused and determined resistance to tyranny is needed. A King is what they want. It should not be given to them.

No King but the Constitution.

It's a football game

 

After a really heavy duty type of posting day, it was time for some diversion. There was a preseason game between the Texans and the Saints, and it was a way to forget about everything for awhile. Leave it up to me to get serious again. That's because I noticed something I haven't noticed before.

I wanted to follow the action, and I was trying something new on the YouTube. Some dude was watching the game on TV and he was talking about it on a live stream. He's a real Texans fan, and it was very entertaining to watch him. There were some calls that went against the Texans, and then it hit me. HE'S A FAN. It's all a game. If it is a game, you'll do anything and / or say anything to win. You cannot be objective and honest about it and be a fan.

So there was this call that he said was a fumble by the Saints. But it really wasn't a fumble. The Texans player interfered with the opportunity to make a catch of the punt. But he's swearing up and down that the Texans were robbed on a bad call by the refs. Nope, the call was correct. Saints' ball, not the Texans' ball.

Do you get the point? In our political discussions, there is no chance for honesty. Nobody can admit error, because it is a GAME. If it is a GAME, you cannot be honest about things. Those who are honest cannot win because the other side will always take advantage.

It's a helluva way to run a society. Everything gets reduced to some partisan struggle. The truth be damned. Winning is everything. Makes no difference what get destroyed in the process.

It's all a game. Both sides are fans on opposite sides. Go Team! And that is how we decide things.

I've got a really bad feeling about it. It cannot be the way. In fact, it is the opposite of the way. It may explain a lot about why things seem so out of whack.

By the way, it's embarrassing to write this. It's a game, but it may be a deadly game. If you cannot give up the game, somebody could get killed. You have to know when to stop, but if you can't--then what?

That's the last post of a very long day of this. I'm tired. I'm drained. For all I know, I'm making things worse.

It reminds me of something in the movies. The Michael Jackson song.

Apollo 11 landing (1969)

Check out the comments... People are saying that it was fake. The amount of hatred there must be to make such a statement is staggering.



Yep, I believe it was for real. Something that big with people in it doesn't just magically produce the people who were in it several days later. They have to be somewhere. They just don't appear out of nowhere in the South Pacific on an aircraft carrier.

The capsule was filmed coming down from the sky. It was held up by parachutes. How did they get there? By magic?

I suppose skepticism is all right. But I suspect that the people making these claims know full well that they are wrong, and mean harm by the false statements.

Not to stir up alarm, but...

The world could be close to a world war. Why would anyone doubt that?

Things could be set in motion that may be impossible to stop. The last few days, I've been reading about the days leading up to the war with Japan during War War II. There were a lot of warnings out there, but the warnings were not heeded.

If war does come, better be on the side of a higher power. Those who deny any such thing might want to reconsider. Indeed, it has been said that there are no atheists in foxholes. One's imminent death has a way of concentrating attention. It takes a lot to live, but not that much to die.

It has been said that a war may begin with a terrorist attack. There was one on September 11th, 2001. Nobody saw that one coming, either. I recall hearing that that attack was worse than the one on Pearl Harbor. This was from a Pearl Harbor vet, if memory serves.

The dashboard idiot lights are blinking red, in my opinion. Ignoring them is not a good idea. Not with cars, nor with the signs of the times.

America's track record in these types of events hasn't been the best. We got caught napping at Pearl Harbor and on September 11th. This time, there won't be any excuse. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times, then there must be a death wish.

Back before September 11th, I sensed that there was "something in the air". Nothing definite that I could put my finger on, but I could swear that something could be about to happen again. Can't put my finger on it, but people seem to be acting like nothing like this could ever happen again.

Sometimes, you get people who just won't learn.

Some musings on the Starship and other things...

Update of post of 8/26/23:

Starship may be close to another launch, and I remember what happened last time. The last time, they had a static fire of only 50% of its maximum, and the concrete was okay. But when it needed to be okay at 100%, it failed. When at 100%, there's a massive rocket sitting on top of it. Nightmare scenarios come to mind.

The recollection of that haunts me again... So I had to say something at the risk of appearing stupid. Well, I'm not a rocket scientist, but I know that 6000 tons of propellant on a launch pad going boom won't be a pretty thing.

The test wasn't rigorous enough is what I'm thinking. Why not dig a little deeper before you dig yourself into a deep hole that you may never be able to recover from???

But I don't like asking questions that may reveal my ignorance. Such may cause a loss of face. But LBJ said, "save your face, and lose your ass." Just trying to forget the ego and say something while there's still a chance.

Know what I mean, Vern?

It hasn't been a cheery last few days... Some dark forebodings have entered the picture, and I hope I'm wrong. But if I am right, we could be on the cusp of multiple catastrophes. After it is all said and done, and if nothing bad has happened, then I'll be glad to be wrong. I won't take satisfaction in being right, though.

SpaceX is moving pretty fast. It is astounding in a way. They darn near burned through the dang launch table, then turned around and rebuilt it in just 4 months. You got to hand it to Musk and his crew. But there's a "but". You've got a behemoth on that launch pad, and if it blows up, it will not be pretty. What's at stake here is the entire American space program here. It could also go up in smoke along with SpaceX if the worst happens. Yet, these guys take it all in rather nonchalantly as if it wasn't any big deal. A 50-50 chance of success? How much of a chance that the thing blows up on the launch table???

I don't want to be an alarmist. Just wondering what the big rush is? Also, what if there are alternatives to trying to go all out and get to orbit on this next launch attempt? So I posed the question: Can this thing be launched with a partially full fuel tank, and only try for a suborbital flight? You could find out a few things that way, and you could reduce the risk of bad stuff happening. A football metaphor here--they are throwing deep, when all they need is to move the chains right now. The game is still early, and you're not behind in the game.

Also, there is a lot of hyping of what went wrong, but you don't want to understate that, either. If that launch table gets compromised with all that fuel onboard, there's going to be a catastrophe. Whereas, if you launch a suborbital mission, the launch table could be tested with less risk. The risk is with engine failures happening all at once. With half the mass, you could lose half the engines, and still clear the launch tower and get downrange. But if too many engines fail, its going to crash. Engine failures at this stage is worrisome. You need to understand that backwards and forwards. I think there's too much being downplayed here.

So let's use that scenario, and segue back into the larger picture. We got this very succesful appearing guy, Elon Musk, and with all that success could come a very big ego. We have a lot of big egos around these days, and they don't seem to think that they could ever be wrong about anything. But what if you are? If there's a lot riding on some decisions, isn't it prudent to pull back on the reins just a little, and watch yourself? We've got too much risk taking right now. We could be on the verge of a lot going wrong in a very short period of time. What do you do in that case? I'm thinking this could be a Greek tragedy scenario, where hubris might cause the downfall and the suffering of a great many people because of somebody's ego???

I'm against America's involvement in so many wars everywhere in the world, while we can't get our own act together right here. But the one thing that seems to be working well may in fact, not be working as well as everyone seems to think. There's warnings signs all around. There's still time to take stock and reconsider a few things.

But with success comes the big ego. That's what's worrying me. What's wrong with dialing it down a bit?