8/21/26:
Doggone! There wasn't a landslide in the popular vote, but he did get about the same number of electoral votes in the actual election. He didn't get the number of black and Latino voters, but he got more than the usual GOp nominee gets.
Looking back on this, the left has managed to hold on to their voters just enough to avoid catastrophe. But how they did it is something that should worry patriots. All the phony scandals and lawfare. The disappointing part is that people fall for the nonsense.
Trump has got the be the best president in my lifetime. Better than Reagan. So what's the deal with Trump?
He's a constant promoter. Perhaps that turns people off. Well, there's that abrasive quality about him, too. If he was like Reagan in the Teflon coating department, there's no telling what he could have accomplished.
As for yours truly, I am of a practical bent. I don't give a hoot's hell about somebody's STYLE. I look for results. Which reminds me of what Lincoln was supposed to have said about General Grant. When folks objected to Grant's drinking, Lincoln replied that he understood that it was no longer a problem. But if he was still drinking, he'd inquire around and see what he was drinking and he'd give a barrel of it to the rest of his generals. Lincoln liked Grants results. He didn't give a flip about his drinking. I'm with Lincoln in that regard.
12/29/15: The original post starts just below:
What is the basis of such a speculation? It comes from none other than the
538 site that I
linked to awhile back. Also,
a poll, which claims that Trump could get 40% of the black vote and 45% of the latino vote.
That seems like a big stretch, but maybe not. Considering that Trump is running something of a populist campaign, his appeal could result in a big victory that includes non-college educated whites, blacks, and latinos.
Testing that theory, I plugged in turnout numbers and voting percentages that came close to the poll. What the poll didn't indicate is turnout, so I played with that number a bit. The numbers I used were the following:
- college educated whites vote in same percentage, but turnout falls to non-college educated whites
- non-college educate whites vote in same percentage, but turnout rises to college educated whites
- blacks 61-39% in favor of Dems, but with turnout of college educated whites
- latinos 57-43% in favor of Dems with turnout the same
- asians unchanged
results Trump wins with 53.3% of the vote and 322 electoral votes.
Thus, a populist campaign can win. It would rely upon the demographic breakdowns that were in the poll, and a smattering perhaps of wishful thinking. The wishful thinking relates to how this poll stacks up to anything in the real world.
If Trump is actually doing better than this poll, especially amongst whites, it's a landslide.