Saturday, August 17, 2019

Stocks plunge

Updated,

8.17.19:

A bit of chart studying reveals that the longer-term trend lines are not disturbed.  A sell-off will have to get worse for this to happen.

Still hard for me to believe that there is an increased recession risk when interest rates are this low.

There could be another explanation for this phenomenon.  Consider the years of quantitative easing in the last administration, and it may explain what is going on.  Maybe.  The point is that all that money has to go somewhere.  Either the Fed allows the debt to roll over, or they retire it.  If it rolls over, then it means that they are buying the debt that they already held.  This has the effect of increasing demand for bonds, which reduces the bond yields.

It wouldn't surprise me if the Fed is doing this in order to alter perceptions.  In other words, none of this is particularly meaningful as in prior years.  No other recession has had quantitative easing to unwind.  This is new.


8.14.19:

As mentioned before on this blog, a good recession signal is an inverted yield curve.  However, not every inverted yield curve means a recession.  But all recessions have had an inverted yield curve.

Confused?  It shouldn't be confusing.  All it means is that the recession risk is now higher.  But nothing is written in stone.  Keep in mind that the interest rates are really low already.  Unless there is some sort of deflationary pressure that exists out there, a low interest rate should not be "high".

There is no evidence of deflation, according to the inflation figures out there.  Maybe there is elsewhere in the world, however.

Furthermore, the stock market plunge is not yet significant enough to become concerned about a bear market.

Even so, a bear market does not guarantee a recession either.  The huge drop in 1987 did not cause a recession.  The recession in 1990 was not caused by the stock market plunge of 1987.  By 1990, the stock market had largely recovered.

Just more hyped up stories masquerading as news.  There's no news until there's news.  This isn't news.


Less is more

Despite all the goal setting and striving, it sometimes seems that to be still and do nothing can actually lead to a better result.

This runs contrary to I want to believe.  However, what good does all the activity do when you get nowhere?  Thrashing about in all directions uses a lot of energy.  Less energy applied more intelligently can do more.

Such thoughts occurred to me when I looked at my to-do list this morning.  Nothing got done, but it seemed alright that it didn't.  Doing things just to be doing something isn't necessarily constructive to any purposeful end.

There's a time and place for everything.   The trick is to know when and where and for what.


Friday, August 16, 2019

Racism is the new N-word

Comment:

Why does someone need to be "educated" about what racism is? If somebody is a victim of real racism ( as opposed to the imaginary racial grievance-mongering so common these days), ie. examples of real racism: such as lynching or cross-burning, then you don't need any further "training" on what racism is.

Simply disagreeing on a subject is not evidence of "racism".  Criticizing a member of Congress for doing a poor job is not racism.  Blaming every little thing that happens on race is not going to help anybody with any problem that they may be facing.

The ill-considered charge of racism is nothing more than name-calling.  The late Julian Bond once compared it to the N-word.  So, instead of using the N-word, it is now fashionable among Democrats to use that ugly word 'racism'.  It marginalizes and stigmatizes the target.  Just like the N-word did.  Julian Bond believed it, so it must be true.

Furthermore, AOC seems to think people are uneducated.  However, if you require somebody in authority to tell you what to think, how can you be "educated".  An educated person can think for himself/herself.


Guaranteed to ruin your day

Comment:

If getting depressed is your bag, then read this.  Guaranteed to depress the spirits of even the most optimistic of souls.

I've suspected that the schools these days are set up to create idiots.  Idiots are easier to manipulate.

Obligatory, 8.16.19

In the summer around here, if you want to do anything outside, you'd better do it early.  Temperatures get hot fast.  It's been over 100 consistently lately.

There have been a number of experiments over the last few months.  Not much mention here that I can recall at the moment.

Weeds are a problem as well as bugs.  I've tried a number of tactics to attack both.  As for the weeds, there is a vinegar and salt solution that seems to put the hurt on 'em.  The ants are being controlled with a mixture of roach powder ( boron compound ) and pancake syrup.  The ants are attracted to the sweet syrupy mixture, but it is deadly to them. The idea is to make baits that will poison the colony.  It seems to help, but I still got a few.

Once it gets too hot to work outside, I play around with the computer.  All the while, I am trying to minimize the use of the a/c.  This year, I am using the a/c more.  Probably too lazy to keep filling up the swamp cooler.  Yet, there is room to experiment with this too.  The a/c pulls the humidity out of the air that the cooler puts in.  Both can work together to minimize the use of electricity and water.  Or, at least that is the idea.

When I am not fooling around with the off-grid type experiments, I experiment with the video editor that comes with this version of Windows 10.  Just this morning, I made another video.  It hasn't been uploaded to YouTube, though.  Don't know if I'll do that.  It isn't anything new, just a variation on a theme.

Nothing much is going on.  Too hot around here.


Thursday, August 15, 2019

Solomon: DOJ needs reform

Comment:

Which is precisely why it won't happen, unless something happens.

That something has to happen in the political arena, but there's not a whole lot out there to suggest that this is going to be forthcoming.

Let's put it another way.  The public has to want a clean and honest government, or there isn't going to be one.


Politics of "Shut up" goes into warp drive

Comment:

A little "Trekkie" lingo, there.  

The latest thing for the left is to attack the opposition.  Why not attack the supporters of the opposition?  It really worked for Hillary, now didn't it? /sarc

I'll attack the lefties here, but since I'm not running for anything, it doesn't matter.


Typical Democrat Politician

Comment:

Yeah, this might seem harsh, but there doesn't seem to be much difference between Warren and the rest of the sorry lot.

It should be easy for the GOP to win in 2020, but they are trying really hard not to.



Gangster Government, but the people don't care.

Comment:

Don't want to appear defeatist, but the evidence is overwhelmingly against the Establishment.  Trump is a problem for these gangsters, but they have to get past the elections.

Amazingly enough, after all their lies, people still believe the gangsters.

Without the public opening their eyes to the corruption in DC, things will just go from bad to worse.

Drain the swamp while you can, before the swamp drains YOU.



Wednesday, August 14, 2019

Gun control and Posse comitatus

Question:

How does this fit in with gun-controlLaw enforcement has always been a local matter.  Why nationalize it?



Morris:"Clinton's Assault Rifle Ban"

Comment:

This may check out as to the actual facts.  Conservatives may not trust Morris, but trust or no trust, if the Dems can cite this credibly, then it is a problem.

The gold standard on this blog is truth.  Even if it is not convenient.



White Supremacy Hoax

Comment:

I'll just call it the Fredo syndrome for now on.

Truth and Knowledge is So unfair

Comment:

A thought just sprung up, it could be called the Fredo Syndrome.  "I'm smart!, I can handle things!"

updated, a little while later:

Or it could be called the Fredo maneuver, which is to blame the "privileged" for any imagined grievance.  Examples can be the obvious one, plus the recent flap about Baltimore, or Hillary calling Trump-supporters "deplorables".

Tuesday, August 13, 2019

Insanity is normalized

Comment:

What this guy is talking about should be a standard definition of sanity.  That is to say that the ability to recognize and deal with reality as it is, as opposed to what one wishes it to be.

Someone who cannot deal with reality should be considered insane.  The trouble with post modern philosophy is that it teaches people that to be insane is totally acceptable.

The thing that is unacceptable is the notion that post modern philosophy is valid.

Monday, August 12, 2019

What does the CONUS say about guns?

9:00 am:

For the purposes of this post, the CONUS means Constitution of the United States.

Article I, Section 8, paragraph 15 or so:

To provide for organizing, arming, and disciplining the Militia, and for governing such part of them as may be employed in the service of the United States, reserving to the states respectively, the appointment of the Officers, and the authority for training the Militia according to the discipline prescribed by Congress;

Therefore, the Congress provides for the Militia, governs it through its rules for discipline, and delegates authority to the states to appoint the officers that will administer such discipline.

Also, you have the Second Amendment, which stipulates that the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed.

It seems that somewhere in there is a way to regulate those who will keep and bear arms.  That may be the liberal rationale for gun-control, but the rhetoric is aimed toward the possession of arms, which is contrary to the Second Amendment.

See the difference?  The CONUS regulates militias, not arms, nor does it have the authority to regulate who will be allowed to keep them.

It would be nice if our government would actually follow the CONUS, since it is the law of the land.

Daily Update:

11:20 am:

So what does the US Code say about the Militia?

According to 10 US Code 246:

source

It seems that the organized militia is already er... organized.

What about the "unorganized militia"?

What about gun-control in this context?

At this point, you'd have to look at the gun-control that already exists.  Without the context of the militia, gun-control would be unlawful.

You could sweep all people who own military-grade weapons who are not in the organized militia into a regime in which they would have to submit to some kind of military discipline.

If they are unarmed, they would be exempt.  Handguns would be exempt.  Single action weapons of all kinds would be exempt.

The only regulation is to determine what weapons are of military-grade.  That would be the dividing point between the unregulated and the regulated militias.  People who owned military-grade weapons would be deemed a part of the unorganized militia subject to military discipline.

By the way, all of this could be done already under current law.  What the Democrats and the gun-grabbers are attempting is to nationalize the issue.

Would any of this stop mass shootings?  No.  In order to do that, there would have to be a regulation of gun-free zones.

No bad guy is going to respect a sign on the door that says "no guns allowed".

The above is not to be construed as a policy that I approve of.  However, it may well be in accordance with the CONUS.



Sunday, August 11, 2019

The truth is a slippery thing indeed

Update:

8.11.19:

It seems that liars are keenly aware of what people want to hear.  Also, people want to believe what they want to believe, so if you can plug this into that, you can lie your butt off...

Basically, you can be lied to because you want to believe the lie.

How do you get to the truth?  It may be impossible if people aren't interested in it.  Even if you find it, and prove it beyond all doubt, people may not want to believe it anyway.  So they won't.


12.30.18:

Is it possible that our whole lives are built around lies?   Is it possible that we lie almost reflexively? Can you even get around lying?  Lying is a problem.  Even when you don't want to.  You really have to be insistent upon avoiding it, and even then, you may slip up.  Do you lie?  Scene from the film "Departed":








How to spot a liar:






The biggest problem of all, I would think, is to lie to yourself.  This is hard to do, because the truth may too difficult to face.

Hopefully, I am avoiding this problem here.

Do I have any doubts of that?  Yes, I do.  It has happened before.


The trouble with DC

Comment:

Interesting to read, and the same for the comments.

The numero uno problema is that DC is corrupt as hell, and that includes the public there.  The public there, and in the rest of the country too, has a vested interest in the status quo, corrupt as it is.  As for this corruption, I have no doubts about that proposition.

The only question is if there are any honest people in that place.