Friday, April 17, 2020

A political event horizon being approached

Update:

Looks as if this could happen, but the Senate would have to agree.


1.27.19:

An event horizon is a "point of no return", which means there's no going back.  This country is about to change, for better or for worse, regardless of what one wants to happen--- one way or the other.

The shutdown is a part of that.  The reaction to the shutdown and the temporary re-opening of the government is a part of it, too.  Another part is the Mueller investigation, and the subsequent attempt to impeach, which seems inevitable.

Now for the shutdown theater.  Despite referring to it somewhat derogatory fashion, the theater is all too real.  If Trump cannot get his wall, he is not likely to be re-elected, and may even be ushered on out of Washington.  For the recent apparent cave-in on the wall issue may be a lot like blood in the water to a school of sharks.  The "sharks" may be beginning to circle, and Trump may appear to be damaged.  The attempted removal may occur sooner than anticipated.

Trump may not have many friends in DC, but his party does rule the Senate.  His most dramatic play is one that is afforded him in the Constitution, and it involves a risk.  In fact, the risk is so great that even though it is legal, and maybe even attainable, there may be great reluctance to use it.  If it is used, it can be a lot like the event horizon.

Trump can actually adjourn Congress if one House agrees.  Since the Senate is controlled by the GOP, they could agree with Trump that Nancy Pelosi and her Democrats need to be reigned in.  In order to do this, they would invoke Article II, section 3 or the US Constitution, which states...

...he may on extraordinary Occasions, convene both Houses, or either of them, and in the Case of Disagreement between them, with Respect to the Time of Adjournment, he may adjourn them to such Time that he may think proper;

 All he needs therefore, is for the Senate to vote to adjourn.   Of course, the House, under Pelosi's leadership, will object.  Thus you have a disagreement on the Time of Adjournment.  Trump would have his legal basis to adjourn both houses until such time he choose to reconvene them.

This may be easier said than done, but it is theoretically possible.

Once adjourned, Congress is powerless until the president reconvenes them, you see.  He can rule as something of a dictator.  This is the risk, so the Senate may be very reluctant to give him that much power.  However, it is a way to muzzle Pelosi, and force her to the bargaining table.

Something short of this will involve the very great risk also that Trump will be stymied, and will never be able to secure the border.  This inevitably leads to his removal, if not by impeachment, but by the upcoming election.  In the meantime, there will be no president, and there will be a dictatorship of the Congress.

No matter what happens, something is going to change.  For if they are able to force Trump out due to arbitrary means, we will in fact have a one party government.   The pretense of a government of the people, by the people, and for the people, will no longer apply.


Monday, April 13, 2020

Obligatory, 4.13.20





Enough already. Up to this point, I have followed this Wuhan Virus story. For now on, I am going to attempt to live as I always have. I'm not going to put on masks and gloves. I am not going to self-isolate. Others can go along if they choose.

The infection rate in this county was too low for it to be a threat of any significance. Perhaps in a place like New York City. Maybe in our biggest cities here in this state. But not everywhere all the time.

It looks like it is peaking out. The number of dead isn't any catastrophe. People die. People have always died. I looked at the death rates from this thing. It won't impact the usual death rate in any significant way. To the extent it does, it will be like a blip on the screen.

I think it is over. Time to move on.