Update of post of 8/26/23:
Starship may be close to another launch, and I remember what happened last time. The last time, they had a static fire of only 50% of its maximum, and the concrete was okay. But when it needed to be okay at 100%, it failed. When at 100%, there's a massive rocket sitting on top of it. Nightmare scenarios come to mind.
The recollection of that haunts me again... So I had to say something at the risk of appearing stupid. Well, I'm not a rocket scientist, but I know that 6000 tons of propellant on a launch pad going boom won't be a pretty thing.
The test wasn't rigorous enough is what I'm thinking. Why not dig a little deeper before you dig yourself into a deep hole that you may never be able to recover from???
But I don't like asking questions that may reveal my ignorance. Such may cause a loss of face. But LBJ said, "save your face, and lose your ass." Just trying to forget the ego and say something while there's still a chance.
Know what I mean, Vern?
It hasn't been a cheery last few days... Some dark forebodings have entered the picture, and I hope I'm wrong. But if I am right, we could be on the cusp of multiple catastrophes. After it is all said and done, and if nothing bad has happened, then I'll be glad to be wrong. I won't take satisfaction in being right, though.
SpaceX is moving pretty fast. It is astounding in a way. They darn near burned through the dang launch table, then turned around and rebuilt it in just 4 months. You got to hand it to Musk and his crew. But there's a "but". You've got a behemoth on that launch pad, and if it blows up, it will not be pretty. What's at stake here is the entire American space program here. It could also go up in smoke along with SpaceX if the worst happens. Yet, these guys take it all in rather nonchalantly as if it wasn't any big deal. A 50-50 chance of success? How much of a chance that the thing blows up on the launch table???
I don't want to be an alarmist. Just wondering what the big rush is? Also, what if there are alternatives to trying to go all out and get to orbit on this next launch attempt? So I posed the question: Can this thing be launched with a partially full fuel tank, and only try for a suborbital flight? You could find out a few things that way, and you could reduce the risk of bad stuff happening. A football metaphor here--they are throwing deep, when all they need is to move the chains right now. The game is still early, and you're not behind in the game.
Also, there is a lot of hyping of what went wrong, but you don't want to understate that, either. If that launch table gets compromised with all that fuel onboard, there's going to be a catastrophe. Whereas, if you launch a suborbital mission, the launch table could be tested with less risk. The risk is with engine failures happening all at once. With half the mass, you could lose half the engines, and still clear the launch tower and get downrange. But if too many engines fail, its going to crash. Engine failures at this stage is worrisome. You need to understand that backwards and forwards. I think there's too much being downplayed here.
So let's use that scenario, and segue back into the larger picture. We got this very succesful appearing guy, Elon Musk, and with all that success could come a very big ego. We have a lot of big egos around these days, and they don't seem to think that they could ever be wrong about anything. But what if you are? If there's a lot riding on some decisions, isn't it prudent to pull back on the reins just a little, and watch yourself? We've got too much risk taking right now. We could be on the verge of a lot going wrong in a very short period of time. What do you do in that case? I'm thinking this could be a Greek tragedy scenario, where hubris might cause the downfall and the suffering of a great many people because of somebody's ego???
I'm against America's involvement in so many wars everywhere in the world, while we can't get our own act together right here. But the one thing that seems to be working well may in fact, not be working as well as everyone seems to think. There's warnings signs all around. There's still time to take stock and reconsider a few things.
But with success comes the big ego. That's what's worrying me. What's wrong with dialing it down a bit?
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