The political situation, 4.4.20

Our system does not always work as well as it could. This Wuhan virus situation is a prime example of that fact. If anyone tries to argue that the current situation is optimal, I'm going to call you out for bullshit.

But there is plenty of room for argument about what is optimal. Or is there? Wouldn't it have been better if there was no virus at all? But we don't live in such a world. There have been viruses before and there will viruses again. There will be bad behavior from people before, and there will be again. What's true is true. There is truly nothing new under the sun. Everything that has happened here has happened before. If history is any guide, it will happen in the future too.

What we have is a problem that is in front of us. The best thing is to do all we can in order to put this thing in the rearview mirror as quickly as possible. If this thing lingers on and on, we are in trouble.

So I listen into the Bongino show for the first time in maybe 10 days. This political stuff isn't helpful. Not to say that Bongino is doing bad stuff, but how does that end this thing as soon as possible? Sure, I don't like the liberals any more than I did before. In fact, I make it my business to listen to them as little as possible. If I had any criticism to make of our side, meaning those of us who wish to think of ourselves as conservative, I would like to hear about how to end this as soon as possible. I don't give a rat's rear end about who's fault it is. We can argue about that later.

That's why I tended to avoid poltical stuff. It isn't helpful, in my opinion. I am wondering right now if it ever was.

Just saying.

Texas County map track of spread of the Wuhan Virus, 4.3.20

The focus today is on my immediate area. A neighboring county ( Gillespie ) has reported its first case.

In my own county, the number of cases remained steady, but the county to the east, Burnet, reported another.

I am practicing a no-travel regime for five days. Tomorrow, I will head out again.

As of this morning, I am experiencing no symptoms. I have had no symptoms for over 3 weeks. No Wuhan here.

I'd like to believe that we are getting a handle on this thing. It is getting rather tiresome. However, one should not let their guards down. There was another spike in reported cases nationwide. It isn't over yet. My recollection is that the last zero-day of new cases was February 29th. Is it possible that this will continue for yet another?

Texas County map track of spread of the Wuhan Virus, 4.2.20

As expected, some of the counties that I mentioned yesterday have reported new cases. The virus is spreading.

In my own county, the number of cases remained steady, but the county to the east, Burnet, reported one more.

A disclosure here. On Monday, it was necessary for me to travel to a hot spot, in Williamson County.

This was for an MRI as a follow-up to my treatment for a Chordoma. This treatment is now about 3 years old.

As a consequence, I am practicing a rather strict no-travel regime until I feel sure that I haven't gotten the virus.

If it takes longer than that, I may have to go out again anyway.

I mention this because it is a consequence of this virus. It may not be stoppable because it is really hard to self-isolate for longer than five days. That is how long I will wait before the next outing.

Five days is about the amount of time that it takes to incubate. If my case is longer than that ( should I get the virus), then I will be a vector of the virus ( unfortunately ). Could I wait longer?

As of today, there are no symptoms evident. No coughing, no fever, no aches, no fatigue. (out of the ordinary, that is). It is inexact as hell. It has to hit like a ton of bricks in order to really know, because the virus can be asymptomatic. That is a troubling thought.

Yesterday, I mentioned that it was definitely traveling along the highways. Today's map confirms that hypothesis.

Actually, the map I made today is more comprehensive and thorough than yesterday's map. However, I am sure that the point is still valid. There may have been some mistakes yesterday, I point out.

An example: There are long stretches of this state that still haven't reported cases, but the highway corridors are reporting cases. The one that comes to mind is the panhandle region of this state. The stretch between Lubbock and Amarillo are dotted with cases, but the surrounding area is still mostly clear.

Likewise, all interstate corridors are filled up now. Major highways are mostly filled. That leaves the less-traveled roads bringing up the rear. If it continues spreading, these will fill in as well.

The conclusion should be clear.

Texas County map track of spread of the Wuhan Virus

It may be useful to see how the virus spreads at the local level. Indeed, that is how it gets started.

Any way that human contact is possible is where the virus can spread. Social distancing does seem to work.

But it has its limits. Unless you want to hole up for several weeks, you will have to get out some. That's how it spreads.

As of this morning, April 1st at about 8:30 am, I have no fever, nor symptoms.

However, I have traveled some. These trips were necessary, and future trips will also be necessary. That entails risk for me.

I am practicing social distancing, but there is no fool-proof way to prevent the spread without total isolation. This is not practical.

It is clear that places like resorts are still seeing traffic. Not everybody is cooperating.

In Val Verde County, there is Lake Amistad. It is on the border with Mexico. It gets visited by tourists. There are a few cases there.

In Uvalde County, there is Garner State Park, a popular place to visit. But many other counties do not have cases yet.

Distance alone does not guarantee anything. It is where people gather that is the trouble spot.

Kimble County doesn't have any cases yet, but could. It is on Interstate 10, about 100 miles from San Antonio. I would expect new cases there in the near future.

There are six counties that border Llano county, which is the county in which I live. Those to the west have no cases. Llano has 3. Burnet to the east and Blanco to the south have a few.

The areas around San Antonio and Austin are filling in. That is the area that I am concerned with because it is closest to me. Not all of the state has been covered here. Late note: Tom Green county has 6 cases reported now. San Angelo is there.

There are markings on the map to indicate where I have looked for new cases. See the key for details.

Obligatory, 3.31.20

Obligatory, 3.29.20

How much can you spend to save one human life? It occurred to me that the price of a human life may be very high these days.

The recent spending bill passed by Congress and signed into law was more than $2 trillion. If it saves a million lives, then each life was worth $2 million. If it saved 10 million lives, each life saved was $200,000.

Looking at it a different way, for 350 million people, the government has just spent nearly $6k for each person in the USA. That's regardless of whether everyone was at risk of death or not.

If it costs no more than that, that's pretty expensive insurance. If the death rate was 10 percent, the insurance company would make a killing so to speak. Would you be willing to fork over that much to keep from getting an illness that could potentially kill you? If the death rate was 1 per cent, then it would be obscene. I've seen death rates much lower than that.

What I've seen of the data, using a layman's method, which could be wrong, is somewhere between 1 percent and below.

Somebody's making out like a bandit here. We may not be done yet, and this is only one aspect of the cost.

Perhaps it is better to avoid a catastrophe, but the human race has survived much worse than what this might have been. I've seen this compared to a common cold. Maybe it is much worse than that, but is it as bad as the kinds of things that have happened in the past?

Perhaps this was the best that could have been done. It wouldn't hurt to examine what was done here and try to do better the next time. Next time???? One more of these, and we may die of something else.