Saturday, January 14, 2012

The Straits Of America (Roubini)

US economic growth will remain weak and below trend throughout 2012.

Excerpts:
  • First, US consumers remain income-challenged, wealth-challenged, and debt-constrained.
  • At the same time, US job growth is still too mediocre to make a dent in the overall unemployment rate and on labor income. 
  • Rising income inequality will also constrain consumption growth
  • Moreover, the recent bounce in investment spending (and housing) will end
  • At the same time, even after six years of a housing recession, the sector is comatose.
  • net exports will be a drag on growth in 2012  [emphasis mine]
  • It is unlikely that US policy will come to the rescue.
  • Most importantly, the US – and many other advanced economies – remains in the early stages of a deleveraging cycle.
  • Given all of these large and small risks, businesses, consumers, and investors have a strong incentive to wait and do little. The problem, of course, is that when enough people wait and don’t act, they heighten the very risks that they are trying to avoid.
Comment:

One way out of this mess is to become energy independent, or even a net energy exporter.  It is not even necessary to spend a lot more money.  It is necessary to become more efficient with the spending that does take place.  But that won't happen with this president.

No comments: