A few thoughts on the "recovery"

Lately, the Paul Krugman machine has been cranking up the propaganda machine touting the Obama recovery.  Even amongst his fellow liberal travelers, there is some dissent about his claims.  If you are looking for dissent, this is the right place.  Some thoughts follow:

•  The economic recovery was said to have begun at about June of 2010.  This makes it nearly six years old, and thus, it is getting a bit long in the tooth.  The recovery after the previous recession lasted for less time than this.  Even if you look at the recovery during the Clinton years, it lasted less than ten years, and was one of the longest on record.  We probably have just a little more time left, maybe a couple years at most.
• At least during the Clinton years, there was something that was driving it---like the World Wide Web.  What is driving this recovery?  There isn't anything "organic" driving this, it is all smoke and mirrors.  That is, unless you count fracking, which the left really opposes.  How then, can Obama take credit for that?
•  It is also getting a bit late for a real surge, which during most recoveries, tends to happen at lot earlier in the cycle.  The Bush years had its biggest surge in 2004, if memory serves.  The biggest snapbacks occur early, why should this one be different?  It occurred in the early years of the Clinton presidency, the early years of the Reagan presidency.  If history is searched thoroughly, it is probably universally true.
• Ever heard of the Taylor Rule?  Interest rates need to be higher than the inflation rate, but that hasn't happened in this recovery.  Inflation has never been zero or less, but the Fed Funds rate has been near zero for the past six years.  Hence, we have a violation of that rule, which suggests something.  What this suggests is that the economy is floating on a lot of easy money, and will sink when interest rates rise.  Even if the dovish Fed chairwoman doesn't raise rates, the yield curve will continue to flatten, and it won't matter anyway.  Recessions tend to occur when the Fed Funds rate exceeds the thirty year bond yield, and if the yield curve flattens enough, it won't take much of an increase to achieve that.  In other words, we are running out of time.  The illusion of control could be in serious trouble if easy money no longer supports the economy.

What happens when the Fed raises rates?  Unless they are seeing something that I can't see, this economy is going to tank.

If I am right, I'll make money off that.  I could use the bucks.  It's been a rough six years.

Update:

Correction.  If I am right, I won't lose as much money as I am now!!!  In August 2013, I bought some shares of a short etf that goes up when the market goes down.  I'm way, way down as the market went way way up, okay?  So, if the market goes way, way down, I might get back to even.

I'm under the illusion that this trade will work.  Don't try to wake me up.

Other than that, I have no positions in the stock market ( nor any in any brokerage account.)