Back in 2002-2003, the Fed Funds rate didn't get lower than 1%. It's lower than that now, at near zero, and has been for several years. In order to get to the 2002 low, it would have to rise to that 1%, which would be higher than the 2 year current yield, but lower than the 5 year yield. Perhaps that shows the problem. In 2007, before the excrement hit the fan, the Fed Funds rate was about 5.5%. It can be fairly said that there's no way that it goes that high again. In fact, the 30 year sets the high mark at less than 3% before the yield curve goes fully inverted. When that happens, a recession is quite likely. In other words, the yield curve is already pretty doggone flat. The Fed cannot raise interest rates much before they run out of head room on the highest yield end of the curve.
Stock markets don't do well in times of inverted yield curves. Okay? Are we connecting Mr. Kersey?
What I'm saying is that there's an opportunity here. But that won't really work if the poop really hits the fan hard enough. Well, you pays your money and you takes your chances.
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