Predictions are really hard, especially about the future

That may be attributable to Yogi Berra, who is well known for his humorous malaprops.

I was thinking of predictions and how hard they are.  That's because of a number of factors, of which boils down to one basic thing--- stuff you don't know about.

The presumption is that if you had enough data you can predict the future with some accuracy.  That may be true, but it is also true that you may not be able to get the information that you need.

This is what intelligence services are about.  This is what spying is all about.  Governments can afford this, private citizens not so much.  How can a private citizen avoid being run over by a freight train?  You may decide to stay away from the railroad tracks.  Or, if you do play the game with the big boys, you may need something to equalize your odds.  Otherwise, you may end up as roadkill.

I'm always looking out for information.  I'm not roadkill yet, but the game is still on.