Predictions for New Year

Ah, the end of the year is at hand.  What will the New Year bring?

Predictions are about as useful as New Year Resolutions.  But I suppose there's something about them that attracts people's interest.  We all want to know the future and we all want to do better.  But getting there is a problem.

This may be a bit of a different prognostication than what you may be accustomed to.  I won't predict things that are easily checked this time next year.  The big trends tend to move slowly and that is what I'm going to look at with this post.

In politics, I predicted Obama would lose.  So much for that.  However, on the longer term, we have to see what the two parties will do.  At the present, the Democrats are tacking left and the Republicans look like they will do the same.  The thing to look for is how far will it go.  If the Republicans think it is safe for them to do so, they will offer significant opposition to the Democrats.  This may be too charitable to the Republicans, though.  I don't think they really want to be an opposition party.  Let's just say this then--- this year, we will find out if the Republican Party will be an opposition party or a me-too party.  I think me too is more their style.

In economics, it largely depends upon the outcome of the political battles.  If the Republicans grow a spine and stop the Democrats' headlong rush into socialism, we may see a positive response from the economy.  If not, we'll just bump along the bottom as we've been doing.  Things will get "progressively" worse.  So, my prediction is no boom and no bust.  If the Republicans grow a spine, we may even see a boomlet of sorts.

In technology, a lot depends on Elon Musk.  Frankly, I'm getting a little worried about him.  He's taking on too many tasks at once and he has some ideas that may not pan out.  If the reusable rocket ideas he has doesn't pan out, we may have a problem achieving much of note in space.  This guy is the star and if he stumbles, we will stumble with him.  People may resent that assessment, but sorry.  He's the guy getting it done in space as of now.  Better hope that it continues.  I think it will, but I am not as confident as I was.

I don't keep up with consumer goods, so I have no opinion on that.

In energy, some folks have a high opinion on Thorium.  Well, there's good reason to.  But Thorium Energy may not be something we will enjoy here in the USA.  If the country doesn't get its head out of its butt with this enviro socialist nonsense, that technology will be taken over by the Chinese.  I think that this is the likely outcome. Most people don't consider this to be important, but it is.  Energy is the keystone of the economy.  If that keystone fails, then the whole structure is at risk.  An upgrade for the nuclear energy segment is what the doctor ordered, but it isn't clear that Western Civilization is up to the job.

At some point, the enviros will get their way, I'm predicting.  Fossil fuels will so heavily regulated that an abundance of them won't help us much.  It is the same story as with nuclear.  If nuclear can free itself of the enviro lunacy that is killing the West, fossil fuels may be able to continue to serve us.  In the meantime, fusion energy may be able to be perfected.  If not, Thorium can do the job for thousands of years, but we have to let it.  We will probably let it, but only after China leads the way.  We will have to follow or get left behind.

In any case, if socialists take over, all bets are off.  It appears that may be more true than not at this point.