Thursday, January 20, 2011

Gold moving to the downside

This puzzles me a bit.  Bloomberg is attributing it to improving economic conditions, but I am doubtful of that. Even if conditions are improving, inflation will soon rear its ugly head.  The Fed has put way, way too much money into the system to do anything but create inflationary conditions at some point.  It's baked into the cake, so to speak.  The only way to avoid inflation is to have a slow economy for a long time.

But that would support the idea of deflation, which I think isn't going to happen either.  There's this tug of war going on between the inflationists and deflationists and maybe that is what moves the market in the short term.

The long term trend is intact and until the underlying circumstances of that change, there is no reason for me to believe that anything fundamental has changed that will affect the trend, which is upward.

There are those who believe that the Republicans will control spending.  That may be true, but look what happened in the lame duck.  A budget busting stimulus is what happened.  As long as we have a government which is selling the idea that "stimulus" is going to do anything but add to debt, which is what the real problem is, then nothing has changed.  That's true regardless of who controls Congress.

By the way, this has nothing to do with this post- I use "cheat you fair" in the labels because I saw that in the movie "The Blues Brothers".  Like everything, I am skeptical about everything, including markets.  It's kinda of a joke, but like all humor, it has something of truth behind it.  Besides, I like music.

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