Wednesday, January 19, 2011

The future and China

This article on Kitco is pretty much the typical thing these days.  But I remember when such talk focused upon Japan.  It's not as if the USA doesn't have it problems, which it does.  But it assumes that other nations don't have their own set of problems.  I don't believe you can extrapolate too far into the future based upon current trends.

The future is a tricky thing.  Anybody remember the budget surplus back around the year 2000?  At the time, the surplus was being extrapolated for many years forward.  But it lasted only another year or two.  Things can change rapidly and trends can change.  If predicting the future based upon current trends was all that you needed to do, everybody would get rich.  It doesn't work that way.

It may well be that China will be the next superpower and the USA will become just another country.  But I think that this kind of talk may be premature.  It looks that way from current trends, but something could be getting overlooked.  Let's wait and see before we bury the USA.

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