What the GOP lacks is unity. The base is sick of the Establishment, and the Establishment never did like the base. Somehow, the two have to unite, but that may not be possible. If the Establishment had to choose between the base, and losing, they'd rather lose. If the base accepts the Establishment candidate, it MIGHT work. But it probably will not work because the base won't turn out for an Establishment type. That's what happened with Romney in 2012.
The lack of unity is what is happening to Trump. The Democrats are taking liberties that they'd never take if the GOP was united. The thing that's happening to Trump is that the GOP is letting the Democrats pull the stunts that they do against Trump because the Democrats know that the Establishment doesn't like Trump, and doesn't like to defend him. The Establishment will only do the minimum to support Trump, thus their support for him is insincere.
Is there another reason to support Trump even if you don't like him? What about party unity? Even though party unity may help, there doesn't appear to be any unity forthcoming. It is almost as if the party won't unite even if it is in their own interest to do so. It seems suicidal.
That's where DeSantis comes in. DeSantis will throw enough red meat at the base to get some support, but he is obviously on the leash of the Establishment, so the base may not rally around him. I do not believe that he could win because of this.
Trump can obviously win, but the Establishment wants no part of him. Seems like a downside to all directions.
How to remedy this? Maybe the clue is that the Democrat Establishment fears its base, but the GOP Establishment despises its base. The GOP base may not be able to get the Establishment to like it, but it does need to get the Establishment to FEAR it.
The recent budget surrender shows the effects of an Establishment that doesn't fear its base. If they did, would McCarthy had given up so easily? It's nothing new. These budget clashes always go against the conservatives. There's no reason for the Establishment to fear the base. There won't be any consequences for this latest failure.
Does the base fear the Establishment? Probably not. What the base fears is that the Establishment will betray, because that is what they do. Someone on the GOP has to hold their nose to vote for an Establishment type. But the Establishment won't reciprocate any more than is the very minimum, as mentioned.
Somehow the base has to make the Establishment fear them. They'll never shape up until they get some fear in their pants.
That is possible. Two thirds of the GOP Establishment supported Liz Cheney in her leadership role. But the backlash was enough to cause the Establishment to give up on Cheney. The base needs to channel this in order to get more respect. For a brief time, the Establishment feared the base. That needs to happen a lot more.
But will it? Also, would it matter any even if they did? Perhaps the key to it all is a kind of societal dysfunction which cannot be fixed. That is a disquieting thought that just came to me. It may explain the suicidal impulse also mentioned. How do you remedy a condition in which the subject just doesn't seem to care anymore? What could make people care when so many do not seem to? But they do care about something... It just doesn't seem that they care for much more than what is inside their own skins.
Don Surber had a piece today on substack. He mentioned something which I mention a lot. The "conservative" types seem to be falling for the left's devices, such as their use of language. He didn't put it the way I put it, but the idea is quite similar. I keep mentioning the use of the word "right" in description of oneself. Surber mentioned other things, but it is the same thought. Conservatives aren't conservative anymore because they don't separate themselves from the culture at large. They've adopted all too many of the left's premises. The left is only interested in destroying the virtue that once existed in this culture. The adoption of the left's anti-social premises is what may be producing the dysfunction seen all around us. How can there be a meaningful opposition when there isn't any real distinction?
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