Progress is rapid on the preparations for a 2nd Starship launch soon. I keep track of this daily, and I am impressed with the progress. As far as the probability for success, it may be presumptuous to say, but I'd say the odds are pretty much in their favor. The concept for using water cooled plates looks good, but since I'm not an engineer, that opinion isn't an expert one.
It looks like the biggest hurdle will be the government. The FAA has grounded Starship pending an investigation of the mishap on the first launch. This shouldn't be a big deal, but it could be. Then, there is the lawsuit. It is impossible to say how that will turn out. At the risk of being presumptuous again, I'd say the concerns are overblown.
With that being said, I'd say that Musk made a mistake in not testing the ship further before doing that first launch. My opinion on that hasn't changed. It may well have led to a delay in the first launch, but the risk is that the launch may be delayed further by the government. A less eventful launch attempt would leave fewer grounds for lawsuits, and negative publicity.
Then you've got "Elon time". Musk said 1 or 2 months before the 2nd launch. It is well past 1 month already, and they are nowhere near being ready for a 2nd launch attempt. The time line now is 1 more month for pad repairs, and 1 month for testing, then the launch. This may put it into August.
With the possibility of delays, we may not see another attempt this year. However, if the government doesn't stop them, they could launch before the end of summer. That would be a good bet. Progress appears to be quite rapid.
No comments:
Post a Comment