Sunday, March 31, 2013

Capital Controls equal Smoot-Hawley Tariffs

Coyote blog has a post about capital controls.  Which reminded me that somebody on the net said that this was like the Smoot-Hawley tariffs that were imposed during the Great Depression.   What the Coyote blog reminded me of was that Krugman is for capital controls.  That's what little Cyprus is doing to try to save itself from its latest financial crisis.

What was the effect of the Smoot-Hawley tariffs?  It caused the other trading partners to retaliate.  This led to a downturn in international trade that deepened the Great Depression.

Is international trade shrinking?  Well, I'm not sure.  It seems like I read somewhere that it was.  So, I brought up the Baltic Dry index to see.  Trouble is, with all the government interference in the economy, you don't know if any of the numbers are any good.  So, here's a snapshot of the last year.  I'd have like to have seen a longer version, but this is all that this chart will reveal.


Looks like a wedge pattern of higher lows, and lower highs.  A change of direction is coming soon.
It hasn't arrived yet, but changes are coming.  The leadership, if it can be called such, is hoping for a resumption of growth.  But if the Baltic Dry Index goes the wrong way, that won't happen, and we may see something quite different.

History repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce.  Which is the case here?  I suspect farce.  Western Civilization is making a caricature of itself.


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