What could go wrong in Korea?

Haven't thought about this situation enough.

What are the possible scenarios?

Let's see what I can figure out on this.

At the top of the list is this:  Is N. Korea bluffing, or not?
If they are bluffing, that means they have nothing to threaten us with, or they won't use it.

In this case, they are hoping the bluff will make us go to the bargaining table and give them whatever they want.  This would be an overestimation of themselves, or and underestimation of Obama.  The latter could be dangerous for them if Obama does the unexpected.  That cannot be ruled out.  However, if they are forced to back down, this may cause them to plot for vengeance later.

If they are not bluffing, that means they've got something, and they will use it if they wish.

In this case, they have given up hope of getting anything from us, and will attack as a way of getting revenge.  They are prepared to deal with the counter strike that will come, and this doesn't scare them.

Information is the key here.  If our information is good, then we know what they've got and that can be a relief of sorts.  If our information is bad, they may pull off a coup of sorts.  However, they will have to accept the American response, which is surely not what they should wish for themselves.  Even if they cause tremendous damage to the US, they will not escape unharmed.  That would not be a good trade for US and an acceptable trade for them, but nobody actually would win in such a scenario, except for possibly Russia and China.

Whatever the Norks have as information probably relies heavily on Russian and Chinese intelligence.  But that is only as good as their intelligence is and also it is only as good as what those two will share.  The Norks may not have the whole story, and they probably know this.  Therefore, anything they do is very risky, and they must know this.

Here's something that just occurred to me.  If the Russians and Chinese believe that an American counter attack will only harm the Norks, they could offer to rebuild North Korea if they attack America.  In such a case as that, the Norks may find an attack to be worthwhile, if they can irreparably damage the United States.

Or, they may be playing for negotiations and concessions.  However, they may end up with war, which only benefits Russia and China.  There is, of course, the possibility that their attack will fail.  In the best case scenario for them, they may count on Russian and Chinese help after a successful attack, or maybe those two will welsh, and not help rebuild North Korea at all.

If North Korea feels it has nothing to lose, and much to gain, this could get very dangerous if we are not prepared.

So, what does Obama do?  If he does do something, it could get very ugly.  What the Norks are counting on is that he does another Clinton and negotiates.  But Obama can't repeat the Agreed Framework deal.  Not with Iran bubbling up beneath the surface with their own nukes.  Obama's wiggle room isn't very far.

So, what do the Norks want?

I recall that in the Bush era, they wanted some kind of non-aggression treaty, or something like that.  Threatening them with war doesn't play well with that scenario.  But Obama can't let the Nork's threats go by either, so he has to be seen as strong.  If he is seen as weak, Obama can lose political credibility---which is something he may not be able to afford later on.  There aren't a lot of good options here for Obama.  His best option is to play for time and find a way to strengthen his hand if he has a weak one.  Even if he has a strong hand, he needs to make sure he keeps it strong, which is not exactly what he's doing.

So, what could go wrong?  The thing that sometimes happens on the world stage.  Somebody miscalculates and something else goes boom.