Handicapping the election

If you noticed, this blog doesn't follow polls.  To the contrary, I've said to ignore the polls.

Inevitably, though, something may be appropriately said about the prospects going forward into election day.

It seems that most polls that I've seen assume an electorate that will look like 2008.  That's why the polls tended to favor Obama, or to make the race seem pretty close.  If the polls are showing a close race with those assumptions, then the Democrats are going to be very disappointed on election day.  In my opinion, I think the electorate is going to look more like 2004 than 2008.  That election was fairly close, but Bush won decisively over John Kerry.  This election could be a re-run of that one.

Actually, I'd rather see a Reagan-Carter type outcome, which was over before half of the polls in the nation had even closed.  Carter conceded too early and that cost the Democrats dearly.  Just more evidence as to why Carter wasn't up to the job.

Looking at it that way, it may be helpful to keep spirits up even if you know you are going to lose.  Somebody could be spinning the polls in order to keep it as close as possible.  A rout could be disastrous for the loser.  Any size loss by Romney would be a disaster for the Republicans.  But a big loss for the Democrats will undo a lot of their most recent efforts.

Let's hope for a Reagan-Carter redux.  Let's think BIG.