Big things are happening

Good morning.  I'll start off with what I've been covering lately and that is this debt limit negotiations.  Yes, it is a big thing.

Let's start off with this story, about how Boehner's attempt to get a vote on his latest debt limit plan.  It is in reference to a New York Times story, which I won't bother to read.  However, there is something significant about all this.  It reflects the split within the Republican party.  This split could get bigger, which may be what the Democrats are hoping for.

I read some transcripts of the Limbaugh show yesterday, which expressed the fear that if Boehner caves, the party may split into a third party.  The concern is, and it is a valid one, that this will guarantee a second Obama term.

However, the Democrats have some divisions of their own.  There are some old hard liners who don't want to give an inch on spending.  These are the ones who are threatening a primary challenge to Obama if he continues to compromise.  And they call the Republicans intransigent.

What does it all mean?  Well, it could mean a major political realignment is underway.  The two factions of each party are losing their grip on their caucuses.  If either break off from the main, they will doom their party's chances in the next election.  Evidently, the goal post moving decried by Boehner with respect to the tax increase, was evidence of Obama keeping his caucus together.  Boehner may have to do the same on some level if the Republican caucus is going to stay in one piece.  The result could be no compromise at all.  That's because each wing of the respective party's are not willing to compromise.  But compromise is necessary.  What happens if the majorities decide to ignore their bases of their respective parties?

Whatever happens will be a big deal.  If there is no compromise at all, the effect will be a partial government shutdown at the very least.  Furthermore, Obama may invoke the 14th amendment option and start raising the debt on his own authority.  This will be a very bad precedent.  In the meantime, the world is not coming to a standstill.  If something happens in the world, we won't be able to deal with it as well as we need to.  Not a very pretty picture.

In the longer run, this could result in major shifts in the parties.  The old red blue alignments could be about to change.  It is said that Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania could be in play in the next Presidential election.  If so, that could doom a second Obama term, but that would depend upon a united party in opposition.  Right now, that isn't guaranteed by any means.