Saturday, July 30, 2011

Gold and the debt

I return to this topic with a longer term chart than the last post.  The last post dealt with debt ceiling hikes, as opposed to the actual debt itself.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Radomski/jul292011.html

The thing that caught my attention is the crossover in the lines.  This is also the case with the debt ceiling chart, but with that chart, the crossover began a few years later.  This crossover began in the early nineties, while the other crossover in the shorter term chart began in the late nineties.  What does it mean?  Well, since debt ceiling raises must precede actual debt increases, then that means a timing factor, which I will interpret here as acceleration.  It means an acceleration of debt.  Not hard to see in this chart, as the line is going up at a faster and faster rate.

We were told in the nineties that we had a surplus, yet the debt increased anyway.  It hardly skipped a beat, as the "surplus" didn't last long.   I think this is indicative of an increasing reliance upon deficit spending and the consequent debt that results.

In the earlier years, you can see where the gold window was shut by Nixon.  The price of gold exploded.  With the explosion of debt, I think this should indicate a similar explosion in the price of gold in the years ahead, unless something significant happens.

The thing that stopped gold's sharp rise in the late seventies and eighties was the fact that the Fed got serious about inflation.  It appears to me that they've gotten serious again about inflation, except now, they are trying to start it.

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