Mock draft update. 4-13-23:
This is a neat little tool to wile away your free time. Or should it be a big waste of time? Whatever the case may be, NFL mock drafts are quite popular with a few folks out there. For yours truly, it is especially useful to forget the really crappy state of affairs in the world.
Anyway, here's my latest mock draft with the Pro Football Focus mock draft simulator. The way it works is that you select your team ( or you can choose them all), and the simulator will fill in the gaps of the others that you don't select. If you pick one, as this one does ( Houston), then the rest of the picks are filled in from the simulator.
I chose the Texans, and decided to choose Anthony Richardson as the top pick. There are no trades, and the following is the first round. The Texans have two picks in the first, and three more picks in the later rounds. This pick is only the first round for all teams. Another pic will show the picks for the final rounds for the Texans.
I chose Calijah Kancey with the second pick of the first round. The Texans need a lot of players, and this iteration of the simulation had Kancey falling right in my lap. So I took him. In the second round, another need is filled with another player who fell into my lap. Keeping up with that theme, there was an opportunity to pick up a bell cow prospect running back in the third. Charbonnett fills that bill, but it isn't exactly a need for the team. With the last pick comes another need filled with a receiver.
This mock draft version would have the Texans addressing most of their needs in the first three rounds, with plenty more picks giving them an opportunity to try other prospects as well.
Update on Mar 13th post
Pro Football Focus has a mock draft simulator, which I've been messing around with today. The trouble with mock drafts is that they attempt to predict what will happen, and this is pretty close to unpredictable. Anything can and will happen.
After fooling around with this for several hours, I ran through many simulations. I kept six or so on file. Again, this isn't any prediction on how things will go.
There was one simulation in which had CJ Stroud at pick 12, so I had the Texans take him there. That simulation began with the Texans taking Will Anderson Jr with the 2nd pick of the draft. Most folks think that Bryce Young will be taken instead with this pick. My own preference is to take the best player available ( besides Young, who I think is too small). That player could be someone other than Anderson, but that fellow has some issues that should be avoided.
After Stroud, the picks went Mazi Smith in the second round, with Jalin Hyatt and John Michael Schmitz finishing up the 3 round mock.
Such a draft would fill the Texans needs with high quality prospects. Also, such a draft is quite improbable.
For instance, the betting world has CJ Stroud going first in the draft. If he isn't available, my other mocks having the Texans take Hendon Hooker. But Hooker may be a reach in the first round, so he could slip into the later rounds. For instance, he could be taken in the third round, and have the draft go pretty much the same otherwise. Such a draft may be more probable, but still could end up being way off.
I should mention that if Hooker wasn't taken with the Texans' second pick, then who? He could be replaced by Calijah Kancey. Schmitz and Hooker could be interchangeable, but Hooker should probably be selected before Schmitz.
In that arrangement you'd have 1) Anderson 2) Kancey 3) Smith 4) Hooker 5) Schmitz. Still mostly improbable, but such a draft would give a good mix of the type players the Texans need. But no receivers! There are other possibilties, but such things would take a lot longer post to flesh out. For instance, instead of taking Smith in the third, there'd be an opportunity to select a wide out. But there probably won't be any first round quality wide outs unless the Texans drafted one with the 12th pick. Needless to say, I don't like that option.
A defense heavy draft may not be the ticket, so maybe Smith at 3 could be replaced with Jalin Hyatt or Rashee Rice.
mar 13th 2023:
This isn't going to be a mock draft type of post. Instead, I will focus on what I think the Houston Texans will do. The Texans have the 2nd pick in the draft, and the consensus is that they will select a QB. The QB is expected to be the franchise QB going forward.
Nothing happened today that will change this consensus. The Texans will sign Case Keenum, who is a veteran QB, and would be considered about an average NFL QB. He is over 30, and so he isn't going to be a long term solution, nor is he likely to carry the team as a franchise QB is expected to do. In other words, he is the bridge guy for the first year or two for the rookie QB they expect to take.
Which bring the discussion to who the Texans will take. They probably have their guy in mind, but he may not be there. The Panthers traded up, and are expected to take a QB with the first pick. I thought it over, and I think the Panthers would not have traded up and used up all those picks just to get an ordinary prospect. They would do this in order to get the top prospect in the draft. Of the QB's in this year's draft, the QB with the highest ceiling is Anthony Richardson. But he may not be ready to be the starter. He needs some polish, it is said.
If the Panthers don't take him, would the Texans? It would be an interesting scenario, should that be the case. My guess is that it won't be. It makes no sense to make the trade unless they believe the guy was special. The others may not have the upside that this guy has. This is why I think the Panthers will take him as the first pick in the draft. So the Texans won't get the opportunity, unless they trade up. I would consider that unlikely. If Richardson is available, then having Keenum in the fold will allow Richardson to develop without shattering his psyche, the way David Carr was when he was drafted first by the new expansion team in 2002.
The next two QB's may be pretty close to each other, so it may not matter that much as to who they take. Let's just say that it will be either Bryce Young or CJ Stroud. To tell the truth, I don't like Bryce Young's size, and so my preference is for Stroud.
Not much of a mock draft. To recap, it is Richardson, then Stroud. After that, I don't give a hoop. At least, not for the moment.
The Texans own the 12th pick, virtue of the Deshaun Watson deal. They're going to lose two edge guys to free agency, one is already gone. Most likely, they'll replace him with an edge guy. There is likely to be one available. Plus the got an edge guy today in free agency. The team's defense is getting set, so the offense will get the rest of the attention, I would think. A receiver may be taken with the 2nd round pick. Two third round picks may be spent on the offensive line.
Won't take it much further. Even though I am following this a lot closer than recent years, I am not really up on the NFL these days.
It may be interesting to review this when the draft takes place in late April.
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