Note that Obama regularly draws 49 percent to 52 percent of registered voters in national polls against Romney — but does far worse when the poll is limited to the smaller pool of likely voters, trailing Romney 47 percent to 45 percent (Rasmussen) or tied at 47 (Bloomberg).
That gap illustrates Obama’s central problem: turnout.
He won in 2008 because blacks rose from 11 percent of the vote to 14 percent, Latino participation rose from 7 percent to 8.5 percent, and the under-30 voters dramatically increased their turnout as well.
This may explain the attempts to rev up the base: "war against women", Trayvon Martin shooting, the Buffet rule and so forth. Morris believes that this won't work, but Obama's team thinks it will.
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