Monday, April 16, 2012

Lagging recovery

Just pulled up this chart from NBER, which does the call on recessions and the business cycle:
Last 4 recessions: 1981 Reagan, 1990 Bush 41, 2001 Bush 43, 2007 Bush 43

The left most number is how long the recession lasted.  My memory was that the 1981-82 recession also had the feature of double digit inflation.  Unemployment was rather high as well, probably comparable to the most recent recession.

The question arises as to why the Fed Funds rate hasn't been raised yet.  A rising Fed Funds rate is an indicator of a strengthening economy.  A low rate, such as we have now, is an indicator of a weak economy.  Given that the recovery is nearly 3 years old now, there should be more evidence of a turnaround.

Certainly with a comparable economy that Reagan inherited in 1981, there was definite evidence of improvement by the election year of 1984.  That's why Reagan won 49 states.

Obama has had enough time, even with a weak economy that he inherited.  Actually, the recession was mostly over by the time Obama took office.  It was already a year old by then.  Reagan's recession began after he took office.

Today's budget deficits are too high as well.  By the time the recovery was finishing the third year of Bush 43's presidency, deficits were coming down.  Bush also had to deal with September 11th.

What has Obama had to deal with besides a weak economy?

The comparisons don't favor Obama.

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