quote:
With most current presidential polls of likely voters showing 9 percent to 10 percent undecided, the question of where the undecided votes go becomes of paramount importance.
To answer this question, I compared the final Gallup polls with the actual results in every race in which an incumbent president was opposing an insurgent since 1964.
In these races, the undecided vote went heavily for the insurgent and the incumbent lost vote share between the final poll and the election, even when the incumbent was winning the contest easily overall.
Comment:
Still, I have my doubts that an easy victory is in the offing. Anything can and does happen. I followed the Bush Gore race pretty closely until the end. Bush was ahead consistently by 5 points or so when Gore sprung his DUI gambit at Bush on the eve of the election. That seemed to make a difference.
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