Thursday, March 24, 2016

Nightmare scenarios

With certain elements in the GOP coalition start threatening to vote for Hillary, it may be time to war game the nightmare scenarios that may be possible in this cycle.

The GOP nominating process is down to three candidates 1) Trump 2) Cruz, and 3) Kasich.

Kasich may not really count because the process as it stands now cannot yield him as the nominee.  Yet something could happen that would change things enough  so that he comes back into play as a contender.  From then on, he would be a contender until he is eliminated for good.

If the process yields Kasich, what is the final outcome?  It may depend upon how the process unfolds.  There are reports that there are those who may try to steal the nomination away from Trump so that he can't win.  If this is heavy handed enough, it will doom Kasich to defeat in the general election.

However if the "cage match" so badly damages both Trump and Cruz, Kasich could win by default.  In such a case as that, one may truly be in a dilemma about what to do.  It could be Hillary v Kasich.  Not a very good choice.  The argument for never supporting Kasich in any circumstance could be problematic if Hillary is the nominee.  I'd say the odds of that happening are low, but not impossible by any stretch of the imagination.

Trump is a nightmare for many.  But which is worse?  Hillary or Trump?  That certain people would actually go all out and vote for Hillary may seem more like a bluff, you cannot count it out.  Nor should anybody.  Goldwater's defeat was exacerbated by something like this.  Trump must unite the party, or his chances are much diminished.  He may not be able to unite the party at all.  I rate this a moderate to severe risk.  It doesn't help that he can't seem to put it away.  I've been aware of this for some time now.  It's really up to Trump on this one.

Cruz is the nightmare for me.  He is plausible enough to unite the party, but I think this would be an empty and Pyrrhic victory.  A red v blue matchup doesn't NOT favor the GOP.  The idea that he could is rated here as close to zero.

It may look like this war gaming favors Kasich, but I say no.  For the GOP to win, they need to expand the map and hang on to as many of the traditional GOP as possible.  I don't see him doing that.
None of this looks good at the moment.  The highest probability is a Cruz victory that has him being defeated in the general election.

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