Is Gold in a bubble?

What's a bubble? Seriously. What is a bubble? A bubble has to be defined as a monetary value that is not realistic. But what is that? What would be a realistic value for gold?

You'd have to compare it with other commodities. And other assets. Not with dollars, because dollars can vary in buying power. In that case, gold is not out of whack with commodities, which have also been rising. Gold is doing better than real estate, but real estate has been in a bubble of its own.

I think you can sell gold if the Fed does what it did in the early eighties. Get serious about stopping inflation. But the Fed claims that there is no inflation. So that doesn't appear to be in the cards. Not yet.

I am going to see this as a temporary blip in the rise of gold and commodities. I think the end will be plain. This isn't. Not yet. Something has to happen first that leaves no room for doubt. Like what, for instance? It would have to be quite significant. I've spent the whole day writing about cold fusion. If that turns out to be valid, it could knock the price of oil way down. That would strengthen the dollar and loosen the grip of inflation on the economy.

But that hasn't happened yet. And it may not happen at all. Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

Update (shortly later)
Another thing to keep in mind is the debt ceiling. This hasn't been raised yet. The Speaker had a few things to say about that. Here's his latest presser.