Head and Shoulders Pattern in Gold?

This technical pattern is one that I am quite familiar with, unfortunately.  It was a hard lesson learned back in 1998-1999 when the Y2K buzz was going and I decided to buy a Y2K stock and got creamed.  I just begun trading and this was one of my first trades.  I really wasn't prepared for it even though I had studied on the proposition for months before I finally took the plunge.  There really isn't anything like experience.  You just have to take your lumps.

I noticed the head and shoulders pattern too late to help me.  This pattern was developing for many months or even longer than a year, as I discovered.  Anyway, I found out that you just don't ignore or wish away this pattern.  If it's for real, you better sell.  I didn't and was sorry for it later.

Now I am hearing about a head and shoulders pattern in gold.  But these charts are very short term.  So, at this point I am doubtful about its validity.  Anyway, the one chart I saw in a write up on Kitco has already been invalidated by the rally in gold today.  If this is the pattern that's being cited, then there is no valid head and shoulders pattern now.

One can get carried away with technical indicators like chart patterns.  When it comes to trading, a good foundation in fundamentals is the best bet in my experience.  If I had understood that the company I bought was getting all its performance out of Y2K alone, then I may have saved myself some grief.  I knew enough to know that Y2K was a one time thing that wouldn't be enough to carry forward into the future.  So, what about gold?  What is it's fundamentals?

I have written about this already.  There isn't any change in central bank policies.  So, there should be no change in the trading patterns of gold until this changes.  Central bank policies, especially the Fed, is to reflate the economy.  This is to support the economy as it struggles with the current downturn.  Yet, Fed policy alone will not spur growth that is needed in order to service debt and spending levels as they are.  Something has to change, and/or something has to give.  The thing that has to change is that there needs to be a growth policy, and in addition to that, the thing that has to give is the reflation effort.  As long as the current policy mix remains the same, there is little change in the fundamentals, and little reason to be bearish on gold.