Football season has begun

 

Do football games have too much of an element of chance for anything to be a sure bet? One thing about the modern day, if you want to bet on NFL games, it is easy. Predicting outcomes, though, is not so easy.

So there's some back and forth about how the opening game for the Houston Texans and Los Angerles Rams will turn out. The majority think that the Rams will win. But there are those who think the Texans will win. What thinketh I?

You can research the most recent games, which would be preseason. Preseason games can tell you a few things, but the only way to see for sure is to let them play and see what happens. But if you want to predict that, you have to look at the most recent past. The next most recent to preseason is the post-season games of last year. Both teams lost their divisional round games, but the thinking is that the Rams performance was better. Maybe because they played the eventual champion, and the Texans played the runner up.

The Texans had a definite problem protecting the quarterback. That seems to indicate a mismatch between a team that can pressure the quarterback and a team that has trouble with protection. However, that was last year. This year? The Texans have made a lot of changes. This means that the mismatch MAY not materialize. On the other hand, it may well materialize. If it does, the Texans will probably lose this game. It's hard to see how they can win in a shootout with a team with a good quarterback and two good wideouts, even if the Texans do have a good defense.

That might be the thinking in this game. The odds are better that the mismatch will occur and the Rams will be able to pressure Stroud, which will cause the Texans offense to sputter. In that case, if the Texans cannot stop the Rams cold, the Rams are almost certain to win.

That would be the bet, but there's something called Murphy's Law. Indeed Murphy's Law may say the race may not always go to the swiftest, but that is the way to bet. If you are going to bet, the bet should be on the Rams until the Texans prove that they have solved their protection problem.

I'd prefer that the Texans win, and there's some hope that they can. Maybe you should just take the points, as the Rams are favored, and hope that they can beat the spread. As a bettor though, it is not the best bet. I'll take the points since I am not putting any money on it. I don't bet football games.

I'll update after the game. Are you ready for some football????

Update, 9/7/25, after the game:

I hope they're not talking playoffs in Houston.