Moon First

With respect to National Space Policy, I think that it should be the Moon first. Mars can wait. As a matter of fact, I think Mars should wait for a long time. Here's why:

Even if you had a spacecraft that could go 100,000 mph, it would still be a long trip. In the meantime, the crew will be isolated, with only themselves to rely upon if something goes wrong. If an Apollo 13 type incident occurs, they may not have any help from Mission Control.

That doesn't mean they can't get help, but when you are millions of miles away, a conversation is difficult. As fast as the speed of light is, it still takes minutes to travel great distances. In that period of time, a crisis that needs split second decision making will have to be dealt with on the scene. By the time Mission Control could help you with something you may want advice about, you could be dead.

As for the speed of the craft, at 100,000 mph, you run other risks. At that speed, even a micro meteorite can be a deadly hazard. It may be possible to deal with this risk, but it would be much better if you had much greater safety margins. That adds complexity to the mission. But, even at slower speeds, there are other issues. Such as what was alluded to above: isolation. When people are isolated and alone, they have a tendency to behave strangely. Besides isolation, there is the hazard of exposure to cosmic rays.

Let's look at what would be ideal. In an ideal scenario, you would need the capabilities of a small community. You would need doctors to treat the sick. You would need mechanics who could fix broken machinery. You would need manufacturing capability to make things from scratch, should that be necessary. You would need an energy capability that could move such a large community through space at a reasonable speed. In short, you would need a Battlestar Galactica.

Such a ship wouldn't be practical now. But as technical progress continues, it will become possible to make such a vessel in the future. Better to do that at that time, than to try to send a crew on a suicide mission to Mars in a glorified tin can.

If we settle the Moon first, it would be easier to construct such a large ship out of lunar materials. It would take far less energy to get it into orbit. And it would cost much less to provision it and equip it. It makes far more sense to launch from the Moon. Why not wait until we settle the Moon before going to Mars?

Update:

Jeff Greason on a Settlement Strategy For NASA