Elon Musk's Third Party

 

Trump calls third party bid "ridiculous".

History shows that a third party bid can have an impact. The GOP itself got its origins as a result of the sectional controversy that preceded the Civil War. Lincoln doesn't get elected President without the fracturing of the Democrat Party.

Woodrow Wilson got elected because former President Teddy Roosevelt's third party bid for office. The GOP party was split that time. Roosevelt got on Mt Rushmore for this???

Richard Nixon got some help from Dixiecrats when the Solid South abandoned the Democrat Party. Democrats have run hard left since then.

If you wargame it, what would be the likely outcome of a strong showing by a new party? Musk may try to peel off never-Trumpers, but Trump won't be on the ballot in 2028. In my opinion, the GOP will revert to its old ways. Therefore, I don't think it will have much of an impact. If a Trump clone comes along, it may come down to how well Trumpism plays in 2028.

The midterms won't matter. The bigger impact will be on the Electoral College. Musk may try to be a spoiler, but it won't come out well unless the Democrats split up. Nothing good can come from this for the so-called right. Musk may want to be like the Liberatarians, who have always been around.