This is the first of these that I've watched live. It was somewhat disappointing in a sense, because there was very little drama. It would be easy to underestimate the man and his machine. That would be a mistake.
The most dramatic part is one in which he understated somewhat when he said that it should be done now. He also said that it was the first time in history of the Earth that this is possible. The window of opportunity is there now, but it could close, he added. That is a pretty dramatic statement, but it was all very understated in my opinion. One could get bored with it all. An asteroid or nuclear war could happen and wipe us all out, what a pity. I think this is a really big deal, and have always thought so. What I wasn't too sure about was the man.
He isn't much for drama and presentation. Yet what he is does is enormous in its consequence. Perhaps this is by design. Perhaps it is part of his genius. Hard to say. But you cannot underestimate what he has accomplished and what is going to be accomplished should that window remain open long enough.
I didn't stick around online for it all. After a few questions from the audience, I decided to shut it off. After reading around the webs this morning, maybe I should have stuck around a bit longer. A few questions teased out a few more details from Musk. That might have been worth sticking around a bit longer.
As impressive as this rocket may turn out to be, it is only a small part of what needs to be done before he can do what he says he wants to do. A million person colony on Mars would be a miracle. As Musk said himself, it won't do to get it 99% self-sustaining. Even if only 1% has to come from Earth, it could die off if you cannot get that 1% to the colony. It must be self-sustaining. That's a pretty tall order.
There will be some course corrections before this is all said and done. But it looks like we could be in for a really interesting ride. That is, unless something happens to close that window. One thing that could delay it is a delay in government approval. But Musk has a backup plan to launch from Florida if he cannot do it yet at Boca Chica.
He also needs a market for his product. It is all well and good to be able to get 100 tons to orbit, but who will use that capability? That hasn't materialized. At first, the only user of his services may be his own company. Getting a market for this service is vital if the cost per launch is to be brought down to the level he claims he can reach. He mentioned a number like a million dollars per launch ( or was it 2 million?). I ran the numbers on that. At 10 bucks per pound, that is dirt cheap. This makes it accessible to the broad public, and that could be the large market he needs. For this little money, would the public be willing to hitch a ride on his magnificent flying machine?
All in all, he is not a great salesman. His product is dynamite, though. It doesn't need that much glitz to dazzle. It speaks for itself.
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