Tuesday, December 29, 2015

Don't look now, but Trump may win in a landslide

What is the basis of such a speculation?  It comes from none other than the 538 site that I linked to awhile back.  Also, a poll, which claims that Trump could get 40% of the black vote and 45% of the latino vote.

That seems like a big stretch, but maybe not.  Considering that Trump is running something of a populist campaign, his appeal could result in a big victory that includes non-college educated whites, blacks, and latinos.

Testing that theory, I plugged in turnout numbers and voting percentages that came close to the poll.  What the poll didn't indicate is turnout, so I played with that number a bit.  The numbers I used were the following:

  • college educated whites vote in same percentage, but turnout falls to non-college educated whites
  • non-college educate whites vote in same percentage, but turnout rises to college educated whites
  • blacks 61-39% in favor of Dems, but with turnout of college educated whites
  • latinos 57-43% in favor of Dems with turnout the same
  • asians unchanged
results  Trump wins with 53.3% of the vote and 322 electoral votes.

Thus, a populist campaign can win.  It would rely upon the demographic breakdowns that were in the poll, and a smattering perhaps of wishful thinking.  The wishful thinking relates to how this poll stacks up to anything in the real world.

If Trump is actually doing better than this poll, especially amongst whites, it's a landslide.

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