Unless there is a restructuring of the electorate, the GOP doesn't win

That's my conclusion from experimenting with the tool at the 538 site.  ( h/t AOSHQ )

One thing I found is that if the white vote was uniform in its breakdown as they have it there, and the turnout was uniform, and with each at its highest level, the GOP could win.  In other words, if the turnout amongst non-college educated whites was as high as the college educated whites, and the college educated whites supported the GOP as much as the non-college whites, the GOP would win easily.

I didn't get much movement by adjusting the turnout for blacks.  I don't suspect that their share of the vote would change much.

If you move Latinos to the level GW Bush had, and with the changes above, you start to get a landslide.

Not that any of this is impossible.  But the patterns are entrenched and not likely to change easily.

What you generally hear is that the GOP is the party of the rich and the white.  But the white vote isn't that clear cut for the GOP except for non-college educated.  Many of the rich are Democrats.  I think that lie is generally intended for the minorities, who believe it.  I know because I saw it on TV once.  Some black dude claimed that whites vote for the GOP in similar percentages that the blacks do for Democrats.  This kind of lie excuses what they do, which is clearly racially motivated.

Basically what it all boils down to is this:  the white vote is fragmented, and the left seeks to get the non white electorate to vote in high percentages for them.  This gives them their victories.

If the white vote united, the GOP couldn't lose.  If the non-white vote was discouraged, then it would be a landslide.

So, what's dividing the white vote?  It is a plan, and the plan is really working.  A lot of it is focused on women, particularly white women.  It is also focused on homosexuals.  It is guilt driven on the basis of history of discrimination.  However, it is less plausible now that a black president is in the White House.  The left has to keep up the guilt tripping in order to keep this vote coming their way.  It may not work this time, but to have a woman candidate, like Hillary, may get some of those white women to come out and vote for the Dems.

The key may be the college educated white woman.  If such is the case, it is hard to see how the GOP is going to crack that.  You might get some movement with the so-called "security moms" and the terrorism issue.  But that may not be enough.

Would Trump look at it this way?  If he looked at it this way, and tailored his message along these lines, and was successful, he would win in a landslide.  The question is this: can these patterns be changed?

I think Trump has a better chance than Cruz.  Rubio may help with the Latino vote, but that doesn't address the white vote.  Rubio is in big trouble because of immigration, but that is where he is getting movement from Latinos.

Trump has the best chance.  He is also the riskiest choice.  That's because the Democrats are calling him racist, which fires up their own racist cadres.  He has to overcome that, and unite the white vote.

Update:

I was saying that Trump has the best chance in that scenario.  There are other scenarios.  Another scenario has the black vote and the white vote flipping in terms of turnout.  This is plausible, depending on who is the nominee.  But that alone won't do it.  You need the Latino vote that GW Bush got.  If you get it, then your candidate wins.  This is the strategy the GOP Establishment wants with Rubio.  But Cruz would be better in my opinion.

Update:

A third scenario starts with the flip mentioned above, plus additional white vote from security moms, and the Latino vote similar to Bush.  Well, that's really not a different scenario.  GOP wins here as well.

GW Bush really did pull off something of a miracle when he won.  However, that doesn't mean his brother should be the nominee.  The white vote won't be his this time.  They are too angry with the GOP Establishment.

Maybe Rubio can do it, but he has a problem with amnesty.  Trump or Cruz, then.  Cruz would have a problem with the media that Trump doesn't.

The GOP needs to get real.  None of their favorites can win.  They have to take a chance on Trump.  No other scenario is plausible.