Chance of Recession Is as High as 80%: Study

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• according to modeling by Bank of America Merrill Lynch released Wednesday, reflecting the toll the U.S. debt downgrade, Europe’s woes and stock market volatility has taken on economic activity.
• The Philly Fed puts a recession probability at 85.7 percent, while the consumer survey puts contraction chances at 80 percent
• According to their data, the Philly Fed has accurately forecast four of the last seven recessions.
• “This morning’s jobs numbers pushed my odds to 60/40 in favor of recession.”

I think that the inverted yield indicator is the best. But that has been trashed by all of the monetary stimulus. It is hard to get an accurate feel for this given all of the intervention. These indicators will have to suffice in this environment.