Saturday, December 22, 2018

Dow Jones industrial average is off more than 3k for the past month.

The yield curve will invert unless something changes.  All recessions are preceded by an
inverted yield curve, but not every inverted yield curve results in a recession.  In other
words, there's no guarantee of a recession.  But the risk has gone way up.

When the Fed Funds rate goes up, the prime rate goes up as well.  It tends to follow the
Fed overnight rate by 3 percent.  If the target is for Fed funds overnight rate of 3 percent,
then the prime rate will be at 6.  You can be sure that borrowing will be less at that
rate.

There is going to be a slow down in economic growth.  This is inevitable.


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