Actually, at this point in time, it is nearly flat. Only at the longer maturities does the rate go up much. Even then, it isn't much.
Is it possible, with all the monetary stimulus of the last several years, that this will be an exception? That is to say, if the yield curve completely inverts, and stays that way, can a recession not be far behind?
If it is, the economy is still not very strong. Interest rates are still low, historically speaking.
The economy should be able to withstand short term rates higher than 3 percent. But the rates are not that high yet.
The longer term trend has been lower and lower interest rates. In my opinion, this may be more the result of policy than necessity. It appears to me that the slowdown is built in by the policy makers. Trump may be reversing some of that. Odd that he has so much resistance to that. In other words, economic growth may not be welcomed in policy making circles.
However, if a slowdown does occur, the blame will be directed at Trump. After all, that is how we got Obama.
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