Gas Electric comparison --- Green Trucker Post

What if I wanted to replace my van with a new one?  Should I buy electric?  The answer today is definitely no, but in a few years perhaps?  Elon Musk says he can build a car for 35k, so maybe he can build a van suitable for deliveries for a similar price, yes?  Probably, no.

For comparison purposes, I started with a basic van.  Frankly, I didn't research the prices that closely.  I got a price for some type of van from a Ford site, and this was what they wanted for a model that I am not familiar with.  Maybe the models are going to change.  How lovely.

I tried different combinations for the electric van starting at 35k.  Once you are past 50k, I figure that you may as well forget about it.  Elon Musk has his work cut out if he wants to crack this market.

The mpg for the gas vehicle was assumed to be about what I get for my E150.  The gas price is currently about 3.10 in Houston.  I added a dime to it, what the heck.  Cost per mile comes out to 20 cents per mile for energy.

Then I looked at the longevity of the van.  I figured in would work out in three different scenarios:

1. long life of up to and beyond 300k miles.  This isn't unreasonable in this business to get that many miles.
2. medium life of up to 200k.  I just thought of this--- I didn't include a category of between 200-300k miles.  You can apply for your refund at the customer service counter.  The check is in the mail.
3. short life up to no more than 150 k miles.  If you are pretty tough on your vehicle, it may wear out at this range.  I've seen worse.

The results of dividing cost by miles gives a cents per mile number shown for the three scenarios.  Adding the vehicle cost per mile and the fuel cost per mile gives the final costs for the three scenarios, for which you can compare with the electric variations.  These start at column D and proceed to column K.

For example, in Column K, the electric vehicle cost is at 50k.  The 3 final scenarios in green are .2042, .2875, and .3708.  Now, compare that with the B column in which the numbers are .30, .35, and .40.

Looks like electric is a better deal, but hold on there, not so fast.  We are comparing apples and oranges here.  A gas powered vehicle can last 300k miles if you take care of it, but what about electric?  There's probably not enough of a track record to determine that.

I'll compare it to what happens with alternators and starters.  They don't generally last as long as the gas powered motor does.  It may be preferable to compare it to say, 150k for an electric motor before it needs major servicing.  The battery may need replacing sooner than that.

Look at it this way, at .2042 cents per mile at 300k miles, you have $30k dollars of cushion to work with.  So, if Musk can meet the $50k price tag for a delivery van, he may have a winner.  That's because a new electric motor and battery should not cost any more than that.  In fact, it may cost a less.  In fact, it had better.

The vans need not be completely comparable, as far as I'm concerned.  But I don't talk for anybody but myself here.  If he can build something like a Ford Transit for under 50k, that would be good enough for me to give it consideration.  But, I probably won't be buying any new vans soon.

Cheaper to buy used!