Thursday, September 17, 2015

Market commentary, 9/17/15

A few things to note first before talking about the action yesterday:

The markets are paper markets.  Prices may not have that much to do with reality, but are being manipulated.

The markets are very deceitful.  A lot like our society has become.  The media takes part in the deception.

Okay, that's all I can think of for now.

As for the market action, it was the same thing.  A rally on low volume.  It looks like it may recover from the last selloff after all.  In other words, bullishness may be returning.  Why?  Have things really improved?  It's the same story as it has been all along.  Easy money, but slow hiring.  The slow hiring gives them the excuse to keep rates low, but this only encourages the market to send prices higher.  But there's a disconnect.  The higher prices on the market aren't necessarily leading to a lot of new jobs.

When there's a rally on low volume, what does that do?  I think it brings people back, and then the volume returns slowly.  But what's going to happen when there's talk of a rate hike?  The bullishness gets less ebullient.  It may take a rally on high volume in order for the Fed to start raising rates.  Even then, the market will continue rising.  That's what happened in 2000 when the market peaked.  They'll start saying its different now and that the higher interest rates won't matter.  The disconnect will become such that all the dumb money rushes in and the smart money leaves.  Then the bears will take it down.

At some point they'll have to raise rates.  They cannot forever keep money easy.  If the market cannot rise on its own, it won't support higher rates.  But is that a reason for higher prices?  What price would it take for people to feel confident again?  They're pumping up the bubble in order to make people feel confident, but the confidence is an illusion because it isn't based upon real conditions.  It's fake.

And people are happy with the fakery as long it seems to work.  But one of these days it will stop working because it isn't real.

I think people are being sucked in so as to fleece them.  It's a con game.

Scrooge!  Yo' time is up!

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