It is metaphorical and not literal. The fish rots from the belly first.
The phrase is used in reference to societal decay or rot. Thus, a society's fall is the fault of the leadership. This is what I believe to be true.
Nowadays, you hear something to the effect that it is the people's fault because they have the right to vote. However, the right to vote is being canceled out and ignored. The people are not listened to. This has a long history in this country, probably at least 100 years old. The Founding Fathers would probably agree about the rotting fish, for that is why we have checks and balances in the Constitution. The natural state of politicians is to seek more power. The politicians are the ones we should beware. That fish is certainly rotting from the head down today in this country.
Historically, that is how the rot happens, as the Founders knew their history. In my brief investigation of the subject, the Roman Empire appears to have fallen because the fish rotted from the head down. Especially at the very end. Ricimer killed whatever good was left of the Roman leadership.
Another example could be Nazi Germany. Surely, it wasn't the fault of the German people that Hitler lost the war he started himself. Someone might ask, so why didn't somebody stop him? They tried, but failed.
Western Civilization itself is rotting from the head down. The leadership believes in the Limits to Growth, which pretty much guarantees misery, despair, war, and disintegration. Unless this is turned around somehow, these calamities will be our fate as it was with the Romans.
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