Monday, January 21, 2013

Japan flirts with hyperinflation

Revolutionary Japan is suddenly the centre of world affairs writes Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Telegraph.  But not in a good way, I suspect.  Remember Kyle Bass?  He was warning of this risk, only briefly alluded to in this piece:

Premier Shinzo Abe has vowed an all-out assault on deflation, going for broke on multiple fronts with fiscal, monetary, and exchange stimulus...This is a near copy of the remarkable experiment in the early 1930s under Korekiyo Takahasi...Takahasi was the first of his era to tear up rule book completely. He took Japan off gold in December 1931. He ran "Keynesian" budget deficits deliberately...He compelled the Bank of Japan to monetise debt until the economy was back on its feet...He devalued the yen by 60pc against the dollar, and 40pc on a trade-weighted basis..Takahasi was assassinated by army officers in 1936 when he tried to tighten by cutting military costs. Policy degenerated. Japan later lurched into hyperinflation.[emphasis added]

It will end as it did in the 30's.  A race to the bottom in a currency trade war will bring economic retaliation followed by a real war.

These fools think that it won't happen again.


1 comment:

Vincent Cate said...

I think this is a time in history when it is well worth some effort to understand hyperinflation. I am working on a Hyperinflation FAQ:

http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com/2012/10/faq-for-hyperinflation-skeptics.html