A twenty six page pdf that I'm reading now. Will report on it later today if I have the time.
Already, I am seeing signs that confirm what I've been writing about.
Excerpts:
- There does not appear to be any doubt that
money is the agent which causes the decline
of this strong, brave and self-confident
people. The decline in courage, enterprise
and a sense of duty is, however, gradual. - beneath the surface, greed for money is
gradually replacing duty and public service.
Indeed the change might be summarised as
being from service to selfishness. - Money being in better supply than courage,
subsidies instead of weapons are employed
to buy off enemies. - The heroes of declining nations are always
the same—the athlete, the singer or the
actor. The word ‘celebrity’ today is used to
designate a comedian or a football player,
not a statesman, a general, or a literary
genius. - An increase in the influence of women in
public life has often been associated with national
decline. - The resulting increase
in confusion and violence made it unsafe for
women to move unescorted in the streets,
with the result that this feminist movement
collapsed. - In recent years, the idea has spread widely
in the West that ‘progress’ will be automatic
without effort, that everyone will continue to
grow richer and richer and that every year
will show a ‘rise in the standard of living’. We
have not drawn from history the obvious
conclusion that material success is the result
of courage, endurance and hard work—a
conclusion nevertheless obvious from the
history of the meteoric rise of our own
ancestors - It may perhaps be incorrect to picture the
welfare state as the high-water mark of
human attainment. It may merely prove to
be one more regular milestone in the lifestory
of an ageing and decrepit empire. - But this spirit of dedication was slowly
eroded in the Age of Commerce by the action
of money. People make money for
themselves, not for their country. Thus
periods of affluence gradually dissolved the
spirit of service, which had caused the rise of
the imperial races. - Decadence is a moral and spiritual disease,
resulting from too long a period of wealth
and power, producing cynicism, decline of
religion, pessimism and frivolity. The
citizens of such a nation will no longer make
an effort to save themselves, because they
are not convinced that anything in life is
worth saving. - There is some value in comparing the lives
of nations to those of individuals...The
characteristics of childhood, adolescence,
youth, middle and old age are well known... - Yet, in fact, the history of the Arab imperial
age—from conquest through commercialism,
to affluence, intellectualism, science and
decadence—is an exact precursor of British
imperial history and lasted almost exactly
the same time. - Any regime which attains great wealth and power
seems with remarkable regularity to decay
and fall apart in some ten generations. - (d) The stages of the rise and fall of great
nations seem to be:
The Age of Pioneers (outburst)
The Age of Conquests
The Age of Commerce
The Age of Affluence
The Age of Intellect
The Age of Decadence.
Where are we on this life cycle? It doesn't look good.
Update:
One notable except to the 10 generation rule that Glubb postulates is of Byzantium. After the fall of the Empire in the West, the Eastern half lived on for nearly a thousand years. The same analysis does apply otherwise, however.
What made Byzantium different? It's capital was very difficult to attack. As long as the capital of the Empire could not be attacked, it could regroup again and again. So, it did.
The lesson to be learned is to have strong defensible positions. Perhaps an empire can regenerate itself if it has the opportunity.
No comments:
Post a Comment