Sunday, June 15, 2014

The Fate of Empires

Sir John Glubb, h/t Parapundit

A twenty six page pdf that I'm reading now.  Will report on it later today if I have the time.

Already, I am seeing signs that confirm what I've been writing about.

Excerpts:
  • There does not appear to be any doubt that
    money is the agent which causes the decline
    of this strong, brave and self-confident
    people. The decline in courage, enterprise
    and a sense of duty is, however, gradual.
  • beneath the surface, greed for money is
    gradually replacing duty and public service.
    Indeed the change might be summarised as
    being from service to selfishness.
  • Money being in better supply than courage,
    subsidies instead of weapons are employed
    to buy off enemies.
  • The heroes of declining nations are always
    the same—the athlete, the singer or the
    actor. The word ‘celebrity’ today is used to
    designate a comedian or a football player,
    not a statesman, a general, or a literary
    genius.
  • An increase in the influence of women in
    public life has often been associated with national
    decline.
  • The resulting increase
    in confusion and violence made it unsafe for
    women to move unescorted in the streets,
    with the result that this feminist movement
    collapsed.
  • In recent years, the idea has spread widely
    in the West that ‘progress’ will be automatic
    without effort, that everyone will continue to
    grow richer and richer and that every year
    will show a ‘rise in the standard of living’. We
    have not drawn from history the obvious
    conclusion that material success is the result
    of courage, endurance and hard work—a
    conclusion nevertheless obvious from the
    history of the meteoric rise of our own
    ancestors
  • It may perhaps be incorrect to picture the
    welfare state as the high-water mark of
    human attainment. It may merely prove to
    be one more regular milestone in the lifestory
    of an ageing and decrepit empire.
  • But this spirit of dedication was slowly
    eroded in the Age of Commerce by the action
    of money. People make money for
    themselves, not for their country. Thus
    periods of affluence gradually dissolved the
    spirit of service, which had caused the rise of
    the imperial races.
  • Decadence is a moral and spiritual disease,
    resulting from too long a period of wealth
    and power, producing cynicism, decline of
    religion, pessimism and frivolity. The
    citizens of such a nation will no longer make
    an effort to save themselves, because they
    are not convinced that anything in life is
    worth saving.
  • There is some value in comparing the lives
    of nations to those of individuals...The
    characteristics of childhood, adolescence,
    youth, middle and old age are well known...
  • Yet, in fact, the history of the Arab imperial
    age—from conquest through commercialism,
    to affluence, intellectualism, science and
    decadence—is an exact precursor of British
    imperial history and lasted almost exactly
    the same time.
  • Any regime which attains great wealth and power
    seems with remarkable regularity to decay
    and fall apart in some ten generations.
  • (d) The stages of the rise and fall of great
    nations seem to be:
    The Age of Pioneers (outburst)
    The Age of Conquests
    The Age of Commerce
    The Age of Affluence
    The Age of Intellect
    The Age of Decadence.
comment:

Where are we on this life cycle?  It doesn't look good.

Update:

One notable except to the 10 generation rule that Glubb postulates is of Byzantium.  After the fall of the Empire in the West, the Eastern half lived on for nearly a thousand years.  The same analysis does apply otherwise, however.

What made Byzantium different?  It's capital was very difficult to attack.  As long as the capital of the Empire could not be attacked, it could regroup again and again.  So, it did.

The lesson to be learned is to have strong defensible positions.  Perhaps an empire can regenerate itself if it has the opportunity.


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