Morning Jay: Obama’s Problem With His Base

weeklystandard

excerpts:

• ...American Jobs Act. This bill is basically a huge payoff to Democratic constituent groups
• the American Jobs Act is a watered-down version of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (i.e., the stimulus that the country thinks was a failure)
• So why, then, is the president still insisting on this package?  He has trouble with his base.
• I do not mean the Democratic party is set to abandon him en masse.... the problem is at the margins, which is where electoral politics is inevitably played
• Obama is doing terribly with the independent vote...According to the Gallup poll, the president has pulled in just 43 percent support from independents over the last month, and just 36 percent of “pure independents,” i.e., those with no ties at all to either party.
• if the independent vote holds roughly where it has been for the last two years, Obama will need that 2008 Democratic turnout edge just to keep the race a toss-up...How will the Democratic base perform in November? It is impossible to say for sure, but there is solid evidence that points to trouble on the left flank.
• the Republican base vote that is more energized than its Democratic counterpart, at least at the moment
• If that holds up over the next five months, and independents do not warm up to the president, Obama is going to lose.

Comment:

The Republicans need a solid theme to run on. I would suggest an anti-corruption theme. The challenge here is that the corruption may exist throughout the political system. If Romney can pass muster and be credible on an anti-corruption theme, he can close the deal. Otherwise, the above scenario may not play out.