He is also raising prices and I don't know if I'll resubscribe. Why? No money coming in. This blog hasn't raised a single penny in over a year now. Sorry, but times are tough.
He sent an email recently which included a draft of his latest newsletter. I realize it isn't exactly fair for me to put it up here, but on the other hand, it doesn't have a copyright notice on it, and it is an email. In case you are not familiar with his work, here is a free sample:
9 18 11 Well now. What a week this last one was.
First, gold settled in ranges around 1700 to 1800 USD. The USD held its ground, and settled near the former critical level of 77 on the USDX (US dollar index heavily Euro weighted, the Yen is part of that index too but much less than the Euro). Gold should not hit $2000 – if it does we need to calibrate new highs into gold’s future. Gold is at risk of a major sell down right now (due to market sell off risks gold sells off because it’s so liquid and there is a lot of leverage in the metals).
The Yen and USD are still linked directly more or less and the BOJ and Fed have the USD backed up. Between the two the USD should not suffer any real crisis for now (meaning rest of year for 2011). I have always treated the USD and Yen as sister currencies.
The last time there was any big USD and Yen problems the BOJ jumped in and single handedly supported the USD in End of year 2004 and early 2005, and at that time Buffet and others were short the USD. They got hammered.
This is now similar and the ECB is on the USD side even, or you can say that last week the major central banks with a lot of pull have defended the USD and also the USD has rallying strength left in it. The US stocks and gold are inverse to the USD mostly. When the US stocks and some of the Asian markets rallied a bit last week, the USD would drop but it barely fell below the key level I said several months ago which was 77 on the USDX.
We were tracking the USDX at around 82, and it held admirably for months near 82. Now the new key level is 77. Even if the USD drops to 76, I will feel its being well defended. If it drops near the 75 level or lower we need to watch the USD and other central banks to see who is defending and who is fighting the USD> No I can’t explain all this in one newsletter but basically, the USD is being defended to the last, and recent USD activity last week indicates to me the USD is safe till the end of the year. Right now the USD is 76.62 and rallied .36 on Friday. Not bad considering the central banks are still trying to save the Euro last week which is fine but Germany is getting angry about having to back the Club med nations.
And Italy and Spain are in target sights for more speculator activity testing weakness in the CDS markets. What that means is the EU situation is now in a critical stage and pressure is mounting across all the EU.
The UK is defending its pound, and that’s a good thing, IE they are somewhat insulated from the Euro problem. So far. Of course they have their own budget messes and a worsening economy so they are also under immense pressures.
I get the impression the central banks are working like hell to prevent another world bank crisis like 2008 especially, but the game is getting very dangerous and we are looking at a 55% probability of a Euro crisis by end of year 2011. IE another 2008 scenario. It’s not a 65% risk so far, and when I have said that before, it happens – so far, so I suspect the Euro situation is very dangerous.
Germany is right to stand alone against all this and Merkel has huge pressure on her.
I hope Germany does not just bail out everyone, because really who is being bailed out is not the Euro but rather the corruption in the banking sectors around the world, sans the US Fed and no I do not believe Bernanke is a devil nor Geithner.
That’s heresy to the gold bug community but I don’t care. Gold holding well too.
So gold, oil and the USD are holding up well. Japan has special trouble with the Yen since the markets are overdosed on their zero interest rate money which is the Yen carry trade, where cheap Yen loans are borrowed by hedge funds etc. and even people (Japanese house wives) and risked in the stock markets. So the Yen has a structural problem of wanting to rally every time the markets crash.
Japan is having its own manifestation of this Euro crisis in that the Yen carry wants to unwind every time a global stock sells off appears.
This will be a shorter NL than usual – I have already said what I wanted to say here so far mostly. When the Yen rallies their manufactures have price problems and take big losses quarterly. Like the auto sector.
Like it or not their cheap money is now coming home to roost in a rallying yen scenario. So Japan has to go deeper and deeper into the cheap money scenario now every time there is a world stock sell off. And we’re having one now for several months.
I called the TSX in trouble near April 25 with that stellar call (several weeks later) and the TSX fell from the 14000 level to now12200s.
That is a resource related sell down.
Or deleveraging.
Resources are in trouble a bit. Be careful of them for now. I expect further carnage in resources. The CAD and AUD should be weakening vs. the USD in coming months. That does not mean the USD cannot fall further.
This is a draft of the 9-18-2011 newsletter coming out tomorrow. - Chris
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Comment:
Chris has always been apocalyptic in his writings. When I first subscribed, I thought that he was a bit off, but his stuff seems to be correct. If you aren't hip to this, you are late to the game. There may be some time left, but the time is dwindling fast.
Incidentally, this is why I suggest an aggressive energy and space program. If you want a real jobs program, that should be it. But this administration and other governments the world over seem to be on this suicidal path of what Al Fin describes as an energy starvation policy. This might as well be an Armageddon Policy for what it will mean for the world.
Think about it.
Update:
Although this is a free sample, be reminded that this is a fee based subscription. If you want to subscribe, go to the products page and click on the Prudent Squirrel link, or Chris Laird. Who knows? People might actually read this and go there.
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