The Texas Omen

Paul Krugman decides to come after the Lone Star State on the issue of a budget deficit.  He says Texas' deficit is projected to run as high as 25 billion in the next biennium.  But that number is disputed.  I've seen estimates much lower, say about half that.

Well, there's lie, damn lies, and statistics.  As long as we're playing around with statistics, let's look at this chart:

http://sunshinereview.org/index.php/Texas_state_budget

To plug in the last line which covers this current budget for 2010-2011, note that Texas will spend 182.3, which is 1.6 billion less than the previous biennium.  That will complete the chart.  A little digging revealed that school funding got changed in the 2006 period, which shows up as a big increase in the 2008-2009 budget.  If Texas is having a problem, it is with this big increase in spending.  The numbers just jump out at you, don't they?

But this site says the problem is with MediCaid.  Either way, the problem is with spending.

According to the sunshine review site, revenues have dropped a little, but it doesn't appear to be catastrophic.

I think Krugman is reaching.