Monday, December 26, 2011

The Ultimate Resource II: People, Materials, and Environment

Julian L. Simon

Surprising resource to me, as it unravels much of what is considered conventional wisdom.  It is kinda out of date, but the information therein might as well have been written yesterday.  For example:
CAN THE SUPPLY OF NATURAL RESOURCES - ESPECIALLY ENERGY -

REALLY BE INFINITE? YES!
This does not even take into consideration the possibilities of outer space.  Also consider this:
The argument in this chapter is very counter-intuitive, as are most of the ideas in this book. Indeed,science is most useful when it is counter-intuitive. But when scientific ideas are sufficiently far from "common sense," people will be uncomfortable with science, and they will prefer other explanations,

It seems that this site is quite positive about conditions, but this was in the late nineties.  Since then, things have gotten a bit dour.  But look at this:
Now I'll restate this line of thought into a theory that will appear again and again in the book:  More people, and increased income, cause resources to become more scarce in the short run.
Yes, that is counter intuitive and very unconventional. We are told we must conserve because of limited resources, but this fella said just the opposite.

Here one more quote that struck me:
Energy is the most important of natural resources because

(a) the creation of other natural resources requires energy; and

(b) with enough energy all other resources can be created.
That's why I think we should conquer space.  But if you conquer energy, you can also conquer space.  So this  quote is definitely true.

Update:

I like this quote, so I'll add it:

More appropriate than the Eiffel Tower analogy is this joke: Sam falls from a building he is working on, but luckily has hold of a safety rope. Inexplicably he lets go of the rope and hits the ground with a thud. Upon regaining consciousness he is asked: "Why did you let go of the rope?" "Ah", he says, "it was going to break anyway." Analogously, letting go of all the ropes that support the advance of civilization - for example, turning our backs on the best potential sources of energy - is the advice we now receive from energy doomsters and conservationists.

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