Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Gold may have hit a peak

But frankly, things haven't changed.  If anything, things may be worse.  That tax deal just made deficit spending even worse.  This may be a big guess that it did, it certainly appears as though the deal sidestepped the deficit issue.  This means more fiscal stimulus to go along with Bernanke's monetary stimulus.  Nothing different here.

As for the energy issue, it doesn't look good either.  Even though some production is coming online, there is still Obama's moratorium on drilling out in the Gulf.  Even if that is changed, he put the drilling ban back into effect off the coasts.  That was Bush's much delayed and much needed lifting of the ban when the price of oil was over 100 bucks.  Now it's back close to that again.  Nothing really new here as far as I can see.

Issues are not being addressed.  Therefore, the fundamentals haven't changed.  Now, as far as the dollar is concerned, that won't matter.  The dollar can get stronger or weaker, but it won't affect gold.  Doesn't have anything to do with the current situation with respect to gold.  Central banks will still protect their respective countries trade interests.  If the dollar gets too weak, they'll support it.  If their own currencies get too weak, they'll support their own currencies.  ( but that's not the problem now)

That silver bear video awhile ago may still play out, but this latest action seems to be contradicting it.  If I had to make a guess, this latest rally to 1400 may be topped out.  Same thing happened last year, as you may recall.

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